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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Rain gauge stays low, thermometers stay high

3 months 1 day 2 hours ago Thursday, May 17 2018 May 17, 2018 May 17, 2018 6:10 AM May 17, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

At 93 degrees, Tuesday’s top out reading just missed tying a record high. Shower coverage was slim again staying just southwest of Baton Rouge and only bringing rain to St. Mary Parish.

THE FORECAST:

The Tropics: An unorganized disturbance over the Florida Panhandle will not acquire tropical characteristics. However, the system will continue to produce clouds, showers and thunderstorms especially on its eastern side as moves further into the Southeast. On the drier western side, this system may slightly enhance daytime convection for Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday before it weakens and drifts away to the northeast this weekend.

Today and Tonight: The weak low pressure east of Louisiana has been unable to do much in terms of popping showers and thunderstorms so far this week. Again today, only an isolated shower is expected to flare up in the afternoon hours with the best, though still small, chances south of I-10. Afternoon highs will climb well into the 90s. Plenty of humidity will remain despite light, northwest winds. Overnight will be partly cloudy and muggy with a low in the low 70s.

Up Next: The disturbance in the Gulf will begin to pull away and weaken on Friday. The pattern will revert to slightly drier with continued heat and humidity through the weekend. Saturday should have the lowest coverage of pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Do not look for much variation in temperatures, as highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s.

THE EXPLANATION:

The upper level low pressure center associated with a weak surface low in the Gulf will has opened and merged with a broader shortwave. Energy and cooler temperatures aloft associated with this shortwave will tap into daytime warmth and humidity to slightly increase rain chances on Thursday. Still, precipitation is expected to remain in the isolated category with only about 10-30 percent coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area. As the forecast area goes under the western side of the system, negative vorticity advection should take over. Rain chances will wane once again by Friday and the surface low will dissipate as it ejects to the northeast. After some weak ridging and therefore very low rain chances on Saturday, the upper level winds will become zonal allowing diurnal heating and microscale boundaries such as the marine breeze to be the primary drivers of any precipitation. 

--Dr. Josh

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