A cold front will clear the area on Wednesday morning. Dry air and cooler temperatures are expected for the next two afternoons.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The cold front will clear out rain and humidity. You will notice a stiff northerly breeze of 15-20mph, which will cause highs to struggle for 70 degrees despite returning sunshine. Overnight will bring clear skies, light winds and chilly lows in the mid 40s.

Up Next: As the pattern speeds up and gets more active, more showers and storms could return as soon as Friday. A warm front lifting through the area will initially help to trigger this activity. By Saturday, the associated area of low pressure and cold front will bring a better chance for widespread rain. In this scenario, the surface low may pass much closer to the forecast area resulting in a more favorable setup for severe thunderstorms. Check back in through the remainder of the week as we work out to details of this system. A lull will be possible Sunday before the next cold front arrives early next week to clear out the unsettled weather.

THE EXPLANATION:

The daily high registered for Wednesday may have already occurred just after midnight, prior to the arrival of the front. Thermometers behind the boundary will struggle to reach the 70s on Wednesday afternoon due to northwest winds and cold air advection. The next 500mb trough will begin to dig into the Eastern U.S. on Friday. Initially, a warm front will push through the area setting off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The trailing cold front will push through on Saturday morning and will bring another threat for severe weather. A wave of low pressure along the front may pass right across Louisiana, creating a low-level wind profile that is favorable for all modes of severe weather. Surface temperatures and dew points will be back into the warm and muggy category but upper level thermal profiles will stay cool due to the advancing trough. This will create additional instability, which also supports a better chance of strong thunderstorms. Initially, it looked like this boundary would be a slow mover, but it is now expected to be more progressive. As a result, rainfall totals look manageable. This part of the forecast is low confidence, as it is unclear as to when the next front comes to flush out the unsettled weather. Early indications are that the front should sag far enough south for a downturn in activity on Sunday before a more progressive front blows through the region on Monday or Tuesday of next week.

--Dr. Josh

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