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Quiet weather for Black Friday, Bayou Classic

7 months 3 weeks 4 days ago Friday, November 25 2016 Nov 25, 2016 November 25, 2016 6:03 AM November 25, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

With a light jacket and sunglasses, you’re ready for a nice final weekend of November.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Whether shopping, enjoying the outdoors or getting back to work, Friday will be welcomed by pleasant conditions. Sunshine and a few passing clouds are expected up top with light, northerly winds. High temperatures will be in the low 70s with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s.   

Up Next: Saturday and Sunday will remain mostly clear with just a few high clouds at times, highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 40s. The Bayou Classic in neighboring New Orleans will feature similarly pleasant weather. Into next week, a storm system will offer rain and potentially strong storms by Tuesday followed by much colder air.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Otto is moving off of the Western Nicaragua Coast with 70mph winds and a pressure of 990mb. The storm will weaken into a tropical depression by early next week and is not expected to affect the United States.   

THE SCIENCE:

A weak ridge of high pressure will meander over the forecast area through the weekend. Minor disturbances moving through the mean flow could occasionally provide some cirrus clouds but mainly clear skies are anticipated through Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will settle into Arkansas Friday and Saturday allowing northerly wind flow to bring a general downward trend in temperatures. Highs and lows will be much closer to normal as a result. Into early next week, the high pressure will shift eastward bringing southeasterly winds and moisture return. A deepening longwave trough in the Western U.S. will induce cyclogenesis and a fairly potent late fall storm system is expected to develop. The GFS model has been rather steady with active weather crossing the region on Tuesday while the ECMWF has sped up in recent runs showing showers and thunderstorms for Monday. Given the consistency of the GFS and agreement with the GEM, am currently thinking the frontal passage will be reserved for Tuesday. It still does look as though this will bring perhaps the best shot at rain in some time with the GFS, ECMWF models and the Weather Prediction Center suggesting 1-2” will be possible.  Locally, elevated moisture content, frontal lift and speed shear may contribute to a severe weather possibility, however the track of the surface low much farther north where instability and directional shear are greater means the threat should be worse elsewhere. This is most certainly the time of year though that severe weather hits a second peak, so stay with us. Behind the front, look for another shot of cold air with 60s/30s once again in play.         

--Josh

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