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Quiet start, showers for travel day?

7 months 2 days 15 hours ago November 21, 2016 Nov 21, 2016 Monday, November 21 2016 November 21, 2016 6:39 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

After a very cold start to the week, and the first freeze in some locations, a quick warm-up is expected.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Today will be sunny and cool with highs in the upper 60s. Overnight will end up warmer than this morning with clear skies and lows in the mid 40s. 

Up Next: The area will gradually warm up toward Thanksgiving, however the day before the feast, another weak front will push into the region. This will spin up some clouds and showers, and it is unclear at this time if the front will be progressive enough to kick out in time for Thanksgiving. For now, we're carrying a dry forecast but that may need to be updated as we get closer. The weekend looks pleasant with normal temperatures and sunny skies right into the beginning of next week. It's unlikely that any rain this week will significantly impact the local area drought. 

The Tropics: After meandering in place for nearly a week, tropical depression sixteen has formed in the Southwest Caribbean Sea. This system could strengthen quickly, becoming Tropical Storm Otto before moving west across Central America and into the Pacific Ocean. No bother to the United States, but a reminder as to why hurricane season extends into November!

THE SCIENCE:

Temperatures will begin to moderate through Tuesday as a weak upper level ridge slides across the Northern Gulf Coast. Following the ridge will be a more southerly oriented upper level trough. It will pass across the Rockies on Tuesday and shoot off to the northeast Wednesday. This will bring another front to the forecast area but with the upper trough moving away, the front will likely washout as it gets here. Some rain is expected but it should be light and decreasing in coverage as the boundary approaches. Models are hinting at the boundary stalling across the Gulf Coast on Thursday and possibly producing some shower activity as southerly flow increases. For now, we’ll maintain a dry forecast but if this trend continues, some rain is a possibility for the holiday. The same goes for Black Friday as models now suggest a weak impulse racing across the country could spark convection.

--Josh

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