Quiet conditions are expected through Christmas Day. More impactful weather is then expected to overtake the area for the remainder of 2018.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect beautiful, mostly sunny skies on this Christmas Eve with seasonable temperatures across the area. Thermometers will warm into the 50s by 10am, reaching a high of 64 this afternoon. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s with returning clouds as Papa Noel makes his annual visit.

Up Next: A weak sea breeze front will set up on Christmas Day, but only bring spotty, light showers to the area. Temperatures will turn warmer in response to the south winds though. Highs will approach the 70s on Tuesday, and try to meet that mark each afternoon through Friday. By Wednesday night, a strong storm system will be developing across the Plains, which will dig south and dip into the Gulf of Mexico. This system will bring a warm front with scattered showers into the area late Wednesday. The associated cold front will enter the region on Thursday, with the potential for strong thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, rain could be heavy at times, which could create a problem with plenty of subsequent rainfall expected through the weekend. Precipitation totals could reach 3 to 6 inches by Monday. This may result in some runoff flooding, so our team will continue to monitor this for you through the holiday season. Check back in for additional updates.  

NWS WPC precipitation totals through Sunday, December 30.

THE EXPLANATION:

A surface high will move across the Southeastern U.S. with winds shifting from the northeast to southeast. Therefore, while seasonable temperatures are anticipated on Christmas Eve, return flow will quickly change things up leading into Christmas Day. Mainly dry conditions are expected on Christmas Eve but a bit more moisture due to those southerly winds will bring a very small chance for showers. As a warm front lifts north across the area, rain chances will increase throughout Wednesday, especially in the evening and overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The trailing cold front will then enter the area on Thursday. Forecast model guidance is in solid agreement up to this point before some placement of frontal boundaries start to make the forecast a bit tougher. However it plays out, the extended period does appear quite wet with daily chances for rain. Over this stretch, 3 to 6 inches could fall due to a front stalled over the area. Localized issues with water may develop and will be something to watch going into the later portions of the week.

--Dr. Josh

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