Pat Shingleton: "TIME's Predictions..."
TIME magazine reports that it often feels like the weather takes a few weeks to get the memo that Fall has arrived. The editors tapped into 21 years of data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, defining as autumn as the first five consecutive days in which the daytime high was lower than 70 percent of a region's yearly temperature range. By example a place with yearly lows of 10 and yearly highs of 90 would have a "fall line" of 66 degrees. This represents a 70 percent spread of distance between those extremes. I plugged Baton Rouge into their on-line application. It noted that since 1995, the first autumn-like days have typically arrived around October 18 and did identify our recent Fall-like mornings. The interactive application provides a slider bar to highlight different years. The graph showed our temperature swings from 40s, 50s, 60s and a few 70s in January to near 100 degree highs in August. It also suggests what we have professed in the WBRZ Weather Center... Our average firsts have us in the 50s for overnight lows into the end of the month and sliding to the 40s around October 8th. Our numbers were determined from data retrieved from the State Climatologist's Office from 1974 through 2014.