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Not feeling fall

1 month 3 weeks 3 days ago October 17, 2016 Oct 17, 2016 Monday, October 17 2016 October 17, 2016 5:59 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Highs will flirt with 90 degrees through Wednesday before a big temperature adjustment arrives by the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect another unseasonably warm day under partly sunny skies. Morning radar showed showers off of the Southeast Louisiana coast which suggested that one or two could try to stray inland during the afternoon, but most locations will remain dry. Highs will top out in the upper 80s. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear early with some fog developing late. Like Monday, it could be dense in some areas. Lows stop in the upper 60s.

Up Next: The first half of the week will bring continued mid-fall heat and humidity with a mix of sun and clouds. Overnight conditions will be muggy with patchy fog and lows in the upper 60s. By Thursday, a cold front will be coming through the area. This will bring a few showers and possibly thunderstorms with it, but the most anticipated feature will be the drop in humidity. This will therefore lead to a drop in temperatures. Right now, it looks like next weekend highs could struggle to reach the upper 70s. Some models even suggest we could have at least one night with lows in the 40s. As for right now, forecast lows remain the low 50s, but may be adjusted lower.

The Tropics: Unbelievably, Nicole hangs on to hurricane status racing northward towards Greenland and Iceland. The storm will go post-tropical soon. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is given a 40% chance of undergoing some slow development as it wiggles north over the next few days.

THE SCIENCE:Forecast Discussion:  An upper level ridge is building overhead today. At the surface, an area of high pressure extends from the Western Atlantic across the Southeastern United States. Clockwise wind flow around that high has been steadily increasing low level moisture locally, evident by nearly 70 degree dewpoints. Dry air aloft is still unfavorable for thunderstorms but a low topped shower, as seen offshore in the morning, could stray inland during the afternoon. For the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area, rain coverage should not exceed 10%--with the best chances near the coast. Temperatures will continue to be unusually hot with high pressure in place with highs approaching the 90 degree mark for the next couple days. Light winds and increased moisture will aide in the development of overnight fog for the next couple days. Forecast models are still showing the next significant change to be a cold front marching through the area Thursday Evening. In general, agreement is good on timing with the boundary coming through Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. The GFS model does show quite a bit more precipitation than the ECMWF with the frontal passage. Either way, a significant drop in temperatures is expected Friday through the weekend. Given the current model trends, expect highs in the mid 70s with lows in the low 50s.

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.

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