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Not as many showers as Wednesday, Chris transitioning

6 days 15 hours 10 minutes ago Thursday, July 12 2018 Jul 12, 2018 July 12, 2018 6:11 AM July 12, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A large portion of the forecast area received rain on Wednesday with nearly 3 inches falling in parts of St. Helena, Livingston, Iberville, Assumption and St. Mary Parishes. This left a little to be desired in the rain coverage forecast as widespread activity overachieved from the anticipation of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s by lunchtime with showers and thunderstorms developing on cue. Scattered activity is expected during the afternoon hours, but not as many locations within the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area will receive rain as Wednesday. As per usual with summer storms, downpours and frequent lightning are possible. Overnight, thermometers will dip back into the mid 70s and showers end.  

Up Next: Friday and Saturday may bring a slight downturn in afternoon action but it does not appear that rain chances will go away entirely. Enough moisture is present with the July heat that isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be able to flare up during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be warmest on these two days, reaching 92 degrees. Sunday into early next week will have showers and thunderstorms back into the scattered category.  

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Chris was east of the coastal Canadian Provinces as of 4am Thursday, racing northeast and out to sea at 35mph. Maximum sustained winds of 70mph will weaken slightly as the storm becomes post-tropical later in the day.  Some rain and wind may come to Newfoundland along with heavy surf. Elsewhere, the remnants of Beryl are producing unorganized showers and thunderstorms near The Bahamas.  This area of disturbed weather will move into the western Atlantic, in Chris’s wake, by this weekend. At that time, conditions may be conducive for reformation and the National Hurricane Center has assigned this area a 50 percent of development.   

THE EXPLANATION:

A 500mb ridge will remain north of the area on Thursday allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. The ridge will push a bit further south on Friday and Saturday, increasing subsidence and decreasing but not eliminating rain chances. Other than that feature, the main driver of our weather is the diurnal heat cycle with daytime heating and marine breezes dictating to development and motion of showers and thunderstorms. Because there are no significant steering winds, slower thunderstorms will be capable of downpours and nuisance flooding along with frequent lightning. Overall, very typical July weather will stay in the forecast through the middle of next week. On quieter days, rain coverage will be around 20 – 30 percent, increasing to 60 – 70 percent on more active days. High temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees around average depending on daily rain coverage. Lows will be steadily in the mid 70s.

--Dr. Josh

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