With mainly clear skies continuing, temperatures will trend up each day through the week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: On Tuesday, you can expect ample sunshine once again with thermometers topping out near 70. Winds will be calm. The night will bring more clear skies early, fog late and cool temperatures. Area lows will be in the upper 40s.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday through Friday will be in “well above average” territory with highs expected to warm well into the 70s. Besides some morning fog, only a few clouds should be noted during the afternoons. The next look at rain will arrive on Saturday Afternoon at the earliest—but most likely hold off until Sunday. We’ll also monitor the possibility for a few stronger storms with this next episode.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: Surface high pressure will traverse the region from Mississippi to the Georgia coast over the next few days. This will keep winds northerly through Tuesday but then provide a southerly shift by Wednesday. As that occurs, southerly winds will transport an unseasonably warm air mass into the area with highs rising well into the 70s for the second half of the week. In the upper levels, a few fast moving disturbances will scoot by, but primarily north of the area introducing little more than a few clouds to our skies. A much more vigorous trough is pegged to dig into the South Central United States by Friday. Thus, the next storm system is expected to move into the region over the weekend providing showers and thunderstorms. Details remain sketchy 6-7 days out, but the possibility certainly exists for some stronger thunderstorms. The GFS model shows a flatter, weaker trough guiding a front through the area on Sunday Morning. This scenario would result in a quick line of showers and thunderstorms. The ECWMF displays a deeper, negatively tilted trough with a strong surface low. Here, we would have potentially greater impact with a heavier line of showers with a couple of strong thunderstorms. We’ll be working this out moving into the end of the week.

 --Josh

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