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Near record warmth, awaiting a cold front

3 months 1 day 8 hours ago October 18, 2016 Oct 18, 2016 Tuesday, October 18 2016 October 18, 2016 5:42 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The next three afternoons will be unseasonably warm. A cold front is expected to bring the chilliest air so far this fall by the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Under mostly sunny skies, Tuesday Afternoon temperatures will have another real shot at making a run for 90 degrees. The record high for the date is 91 degrees, achieved in 1953. The average high for the date is 81 degrees. It will feel humid too. While a shower isn’t impossible, the best chance will remain in coastal areas. Overnight, expect patchy fog to develop with a low temperature near 70 degrees.

Up Next: Another partly sunny, warm and humid afternoon is on tap for Wednesday with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees. Lows into Thursday will again be in the upper 60s to nearly 70 degrees. Alas, a cold front will arrive Late Thursday, bringing the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms in quite some time—though nothing widespread or strong is expected. That cold front will bring major changes to temperatures with highs in the mid 70s Friday through Sunday and lows flirting with the upper 40s Saturday and Sunday Morning. Ample sunshine can be anticipated all weekend long.  

The Tropics: Nicole has become post-tropical and continues scooting north into the colder North Atlantic near Greenland. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms east of the Bahamas is given a 40% chance of undergoing further development over the next two days as it wiggles north. Whatever becomes of that system, poses no threat to the U.S. right now.

THE SCIENCE:Forecast Discussion:  A ridge of high pressure overhead today will push thermometers well above average. Highs will stretch for 90 degrees while surface high pressure off the East Coast of the United States allows southeasterly flow to maintain ample low level moisture and thus humid conditions. With that, a low-topped shower will be possible but dry air in the upper levels with some subsidence due to the ridge should make it difficult for any organized showers to materialize. Additionally, the low level moisture and light wind overnight will allow for fog formation. This same pattern will generally hold through Thursday Morning before a cold front approaches the area. This cold front will march into town on Thursday Afternoon, possibly with a weakening, broken band of showers and thunderstorms. While no high impact weather is expected, this front should bring the best rain chance to the area in quite some time. Behind the front, stronger northerly winds and cold air advection will take hold. Temperatures may not immediately respond on Friday Morning, but a big difference will be noticed in the afternoon as highs stop in the mid 70s. Saturday Morning, lows will be in the low 50s and possibly upper 40s in some of the traditional cool spots. Surface high will migrate from Texas to Georgia Saturday to Monday keeping the pattern cool, dry and quiet.  

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.

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