The storm system responsible for dreary weather over the last few days—essentially, the remnants of Hurricane Patricia—will be exiting Late Tuesday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Lingering clouds and perhaps a spotty shower will be all skies produce today. A few breaks of sunshine are possible as well. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s with humidity slowly breaking. Overnight, skies will clear with lows in the low 60s. 

Several area rivers have bulged due to runoff from the record-setting rain. Here are the latest stages for those under a FLOOD WARNING:

Amite @ Denham Springs: 28.0’ (flood stage is 29.0’) cresting at 30.0’ Wednesday

Amite @ French Settlement: 4.7’ (flood stage is 4.0’) cresting at 5.2’ Tuesday Night

Comite @ Joor Road: 23.0’ (flood stage is 20.0’) crested and falling below by Thursday

Tickfaw @ Liverpool: 10.6’ (flood stage is 9.0’) crested and falling below by Tuesday Night

Tickfaw @ Montpelier: 16.0’ (flood stage is 13.0’) crested and falling below by Wednesday Night

Tangipahoa @ Robert: 15.7’ (flood stage is 15.0’) cresting at 17.0’ Wednesday Morning

Tangipahoa @ Osyka: 15.4’ (flood stage is 15.0’) crested and falling below by Tuesday Afternoon

Looking Ahead: Wednesday will be mostly clear with low humidity, highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s. Thursday and Friday will be partly sunny with temperatures similar to Wednesday. A spritz of rain isn’t impossible on Thursday Evening, but rain chances are too low to carry at this time. By the weekend, unsettled weather is pegged to return. Get a detailed analysis of the days ahead including the wet Halloween forecast in today's video briefing, RIGHT HERE.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: The upper level low and associated surface low will pull away to the northeast on Tuesday. The trailing cloud deck may spit out a few more showers, but as the entire complex weakens, it will also begin to allow a few breaks of sunshine. Some dry air will also advect in from the northwest, dropping dew points into the low 60s and thus humidity to more comfortable levels. Wednesday through Friday, perched between a stationary front to the south and the next upper level low in the Four Corners Region, it will be mostly dry with temperatures near seasonable readings. That next upper low will help to develop a surface storm system which will move into our area next weekend. The GFS model has a faster progression with rain for Saturday and Sunday and the ECMWF is a little slower with rain Saturday Afternoon through Monday. We’ll keep an eye to this and hash out the details as they may affect Halloween in the Baton Rouge area.

 --Josh

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