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"More Storms, Better Forecasts..."

3 years 4 months 3 weeks ago May 05, 2013 May 5, 2013 Sunday, May 05 2013 May 05, 2013 3:00 AM in Pat Shingleton Column
By: Pat Shingleton

We are 27 days away from the official start of Hurricane Season 2013. Since 2008, The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project engaged the tropical community in hopes of longer lead times and greater accuracy in warnings. Their goals include reducing average track errors and intensity errors by 20% in five years with 50% reductions in ten years for the first five days for a land falling storm. Tropical storms rapidly intensify and detecting this intensification is the highest priority forecast challenge identified by the National Hurricane Center. The Project hopes to increase the probability of detection for rapid intensification to 90% for the first day. Another goal is extending the lead time for hurricane forecasts to seven days; matching the accuracy equivalent of the day-5 forecasts previously introduced in 2003.

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