The pleasant feel will last through Thursday. A turn in wind direction will send the area back into a more usual warm season weather pattern by the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Some clouds entered the picture overnight with a weak disturbance moving across the northern Gulf. Expect the clouds to drape over the area for much of the day, and they could possibly create a light shower, but nothing significant is anticipated. The comfortable morning will be followed by high temperatures in the mid 80s this afternoon. Humidity will stay low by June standards. A very weak front will cross the area overnight, which will extend the nice, quiet conditions for another day or so. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s.  

Look Up! Overnight, the planet Jupiter will make its closest pass to earth for the year. CLICK HERE for when and where you can view.

Up Next: Thursday will again be warm but not necessarily humid. After one more morning in the 60s, onshore flow will allow some humidity to build on Friday afternoon with thermometers making a run for 90 degrees once again. As of this forecast, the area is expected to stay dry through the workweek. By the weekend, enough moisture should be available for daytime warming to force out afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, action will not be widespread and no washouts are anticipated.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43.6’ as of Wednesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 154 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. With continued heavy rain events in the Midwest, runoff will result in a second, higher crest in early June. The current forecast is for the level to reach 44.0’. The Morganza Spillway opening has been delayed indefinitely and may not be necessary thanks to water levels running lower than originally forecast. On the Mississippi River, the high water will remain an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Bayou Chene, Stephensville and around Lake Palourde.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak, mid-level disturbance that was not detected in yesterday’s upper level analysis or forecast models is positioned over the Texas, Louisiana border. With some mid-level moisture available, the disturbance has created enough lift to generate some mid and high level clouds. Even a few showers have developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. The showers are having a difficult time penetrating inland due to the drier lower levels but a light shower or sprinkle may pass over the coastal parishes. Clouds will be pretty stubborn for much of the day. Then, a reinforcing front will pass through the area overnight aid this feel on Wednesday. Alas, it is climatological summer and the dry air will give way to Gulf moisture by Friday. Southerly winds will increase and fling humidity inland. Showers and thunderstorms then enter the forecast and other than an initial surge of showers with the returning moisture Friday night, a more normal diurnal rain cycle should emerge through the weekend.  

--Josh

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