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More afternoon storm clouds

6 months 1 week 3 days ago July 14, 2016 Jul 14, 2016 Thursday, July 14 2016 July 14, 2016 5:37 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The forecast will go unchanged until late weekend or early next week.

Today and Tonight: Nothing to see here. It’s the same old same old. Highs in the lower 90s, lows in the mid 70s. At least the weather pattern is behaving normally. Lately, the temperatures have been right around average for July. Convection will be bubbling up again during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Showers and storms will start along the coast, and then move inland by the afternoon. Coverage will be in the 40 percent range around the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area with the best chances south of the interstates. Overnight will be quieter but muggy with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next:  Rain tapers a bit toward the weekend. It remains in the forecast every day, but becomes more isolated rather than scattered. Slightly less rain coverage will be accompanied by slightly warmer temperatures. Our forecast calls for partly sunny and humid afternoons with highs in the low to mid 90s and isolated showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Even with an area of high pressure sitting across Dixie, a slight weakness or trough will maintain just enough instability for diurnal heating and marine breezes to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Each day, timing should be along the coast early and inland by late morning and early afternoon. All action will tend to fizzle by evening. Showers and cloud cover will help keep temperatures low, but the steam won’t be affected. By next weekend, forecast models suggest that the western ridge should begin to protrude eastward towards the Gulf Coast. If this verifies, convection will begin to get capped off. In addition, another stretch of high heat would be the result. July is expected to be warmer than average, even though the past week has been right around average. We really haven’ seen any below average days. We’ll monitor temperature trends closely for what could be another brutal round of hot weather. 

--Josh

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