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Monitoring Matthew and the mid-week muggies

6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago October 04, 2016 Oct 4, 2016 Tuesday, October 04 2016 October 04, 2016 8:06 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Warmer and more humid air will move into place for a few days before the next cold front arrives. Meanwhile, the Eastern United States is watching carefully as a powerful hurricane is expected to track farther west.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: For Tuesday, highs will again make it into the upper 80s with a noticeable return of some humidity. Skies will stay mostly sunny. A stray shower is possible, but likely only in coastal areas. Overnight will be mostly clear with a low in the upper 60s—definitely feeling more muggy than previous nights.

Up Next: Wednesday will be warm and humid with a high temperature near 90 degrees. Mid-week also brings the best bet for a shower or thunderstorm though nothing widespread or organized is expected. Thursday and Friday will be mostly sunny and warm with high temperatures near 90 degrees and low temperatures in the upper 60s. We’ll likely feel some humidity; however it shouldn’t be to the summer level. Another cold front will pass the area Friday Night, setting up another pleasant weather weekend.

The Tropics: At 7am EDT Tuesday, Dangerous Hurricane Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti. Packing 145mph winds with a minimum central pressure of 934mb, the storm is moving slowly north at 9mph. That slow motion will mean rainfall totals in excess of 15” are expected in parts of Haiti, Dominican Republic and Cuba. Thus, significant flash floods and mudslides will result. Furthermore, parts of the Haitian and Cuban Coasts will experience 7-11’ storm surge. The storm is expected to shift northwest after that, battering the Bahamas and then targeting the United States. While it is too early to delve into potential impacts, the westward trend in forecast models means that residents from Florida to New England need to monitor the forecast closely, review hurricane preparedness plans and take necessary precautions. While no impact is expected in the Baton Rouge area, Gainesville, Florida, where the LSU Tigers play this weekend, could potentially be significantly affected. The latest forecast track and timing calls for tropical storm conditions Friday Night, meaning that a slight slowdown in Matthew’s motion could result in such conditions for the game on Saturday Afternoon. Stick with the WBRZ Weather Team as we bring you the latest advisories and analysis of this storm on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough is pulling away from the Southeastern United States. A weak ridge will traverse the area through Wednesday and with southeasterly flow returning at the surface, a brief tick up in temperatures and humidity is expected. The next trough digging into the Western United States will generate another mid-latitude storm system advancing a cold front eastward through the week. Just enough moisture pooling ahead of that front may allow the marine breeze to generate a coastal shower on Tuesday with a slightly better shot for some isolated convection Wednesday. However, per the forecast models and in accordance with the position of the front, forcing and deep moisture will be rather lacking. Therefore, areal rain coverage won’t exceed 30 percent with the best chances on Wednesday. As the week ends, the upper trough will lift northeastward across the northern third of the country but should still guide a cold front through the area. The lacking moisture will result in another dry passage. Cooler and less humid air will settle into the Gulf South for the weekend, with a return to highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s. Additionally, if the timing works out, this front could be very beneficial in displacing Hurricane Matthew east of the United States. Here’s hoping.  

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.

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