Humidity and showers will return Monday with heavy rain and strong storms possible by mid-week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Look for a mostly cloudy day with showers and possibly a thunderstorm after the lunch hours. Onshore flow, southeast winds around 10mph, will return humidity to the region and temperatures will climb into the mid 70s. A few showers will continue to scatter about the area overnight, and it will be muggy with a low in the upper 60s.  

Looking Ahead: Tuesday and Wednesday are looking tumultuous. There are a few days each year where we ask that you pay extra attention to the forecast, and this would be one of those times. Tuesday will be sticky with highs close to 80. Ahead of an approaching cold front, an unseasonably warm and humid air mass will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could produce downpours and even a tornado. A squall line associated with the cold front will then move into the area during the evening hours, bringing a widespread damaging wind and heavy rain threat. This line of showers and thunderstorms will begin to exit the region on Wednesday Morning as temperatures fall into the 50s. Beyond the front, temperatures will cool and humidity will break. Look for partly cloudy skies, highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s to end the week.  

Impact: Damaging wind, heavy rain, an isolated tornado

Current Timing: Tuesday Afternoon to Wednesday Morning; highest chances for severe storms on Tuesday Evening

Actions: Be alert to rapid changes in weather, have access to bulletins through the WBRZ WX app., the WBRZ Cable Weather Channel, WBRZ Weather on Facebook and @2StormView on Twitter. Secure loose outdoor holiday decorations so that they won’t be blown around. DO NOT drive any vehicle through flooded roadways. You risk stalling out and damaging your engine, or worse, being swept away.

Remember: a watch means conditions are favorable for a specific hazard to develop in the future so you should have a readiness plan, a warning means a specific hazard is happening now and you need to take safety precautions immediately. The area is in an “enhanced” risk for severe storms—this means there is a higher chance than usual for strong thunderstorms.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: Due to a deep trough digging into the Lower Midwest, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is developing over Western Texas. Ahead of the deep low pressure at the surface and associated cold front, an unseasonably warm and moist environment is enriching the surface from Eastern Texas to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Within this moist air mass, showers and a few thunderstorms may develop as early as Monday thanks to the marginal instability. As the atmosphere cools aloft, and the lower level jet stream increases, more numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. High dew points, favorable shear profiles and moderate instability will support rotating thunderstorms during the afternoon hours and an isolated tornado will be possible. This threat will transition into a more widespread damaging wind and heavy rain situation on Tuesday Evening as the surface cold front nears the area with a squall line. Certainly, within these lines, it is not uncommon for a tornado to spin up either. By Wednesday Morning, the squall line and cold front will be moving east of the region. Behind this front, cooler and drier air will filter in for a quieter end to the work week. Temperatures will return to more seasonable readings.

For in-depth video analysis, impacts and timing of the severe weather threat, view today's weather briefing from Meteorologist Josh Eachus by CLICKING HERE.

 --Josh

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