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Mild prior to a fall chill

9 months 1 day 7 hours ago Wednesday, November 16 2016 Nov 16, 2016 November 16, 2016 6:29 AM November 16, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

After three mild afternoons, the Baton Rouge area will get a fall jolt of cold air in time for the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: All sunny skies are anticipated for Wednesday. High temperatures will make it into the upper 70s with light winds. Overnight will be clear and calm with lows in the mid 50s.

Up Next: Thursday and Friday Afternoons will be warm as well, with high temperatures running 5-8 degrees above average near 80 degrees. Clouds will begin to increase Friday Afternoon as a strong cold front approaches the area. Recent forecast model timing has sped up this system. That is good news for Saturday tailgaters that don’t want to dodge a shower, but bad news for those who don’t like the cold!  Right now, it appears that a shower may occur with the Friday Night frontal passage, followed by northerly winds of 10-15mph pushing colder air into the region on Saturday. With skies clearing out, highs are expected to stop in the low 60s. Especially for Southern football fans, because of a later kickoff, expect a blustery feel with temperatures perhaps reaching the upper 40s by the end of the game! Sunday Morning, the area will find the first readings in the 30s so far this fall season with afternoon highs struggling to leave the 50s.

The Tropics: The tropics are generally quiet, but an area off the coast of Nicaragua has an 80% chance of development by the weekend. This is not something to be concerned about locally.

THE SCIENCE:

A surface high pressure system and a 500mb ridge will build over the region on Wednesday. The high will then translate eastward, providing east-southeast surface winds through the remainder of the week. With dry air aloft, ample sunshine is expected to continue. As a result, above average temperatures are expected through Friday with highs into the upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. A much stronger storm system will develop in the Midwest later this week with a sharp trough cutting across the nation’s midsection. This trough will send an associated cold front toward the Gulf Coast. Again, moisture is greatly lacking, but a much sharper temperature gradient may help in the development of a shower or two. Forecast models have sped up the progression of this front in the last 24 hours – now estimating a Friday Night passage. This would mean two things. First, *if* the system can produce any showers, they would likely occur overnight and not interfere with any Saturday events. Second, temperatures would begin to tumble sooner, making Saturday Afternoon cool and breezy to even blustery and cold in the evening. A much colder air mass will spill into the region by Sunday Morning with low temperatures possibly achieving the upper 30s for the first time this fall season. Highs will struggle to make 60 degrees on Sunday with followed by the mid 30s on Monday Morning.

--Josh

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