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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Mid-week begins a transitioning weather pattern

10 months 1 week 2 days ago March 16, 2016 Mar 16, 2016 Wednesday, March 16 2016 March 16, 2016 5:47 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather Center

Barring completely overcast skies, area thermometers will strive for the low 80s a fourth straight day.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Aside from a spotty shower early, much of Wednesday will be dry with mostly cloudy skies. A few breaks of sun should help temperatures again eclipse 80 degrees. Winds will be light and variable. Overnight, a spotty shower remains possible, skies will stay mostly cloudy and lows will be in the mid 60s.

Up Next: With a front stalled out over the region, mostly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with a few showers and thunderstorms possible—especially in the afternoon. By Friday, precipitation stands a better chance of becoming widespread and will then linger into Saturday. Overall, around an inch or two of rain is possible over the three day stretch. Temperatures will trend back toward average with highs in the upper 70s Thursday, low 70s Friday and upper 60s by Saturday.


RIVERS:

River

Current Level (Flood Stage)

Forecast

Amite, Denham Springs

26.3’ (29.0’)

Falling

Amite, Bayou Manchac

13.0’ (9.0’)

Falling Below by Thu. AM

Amite, Port Vincent

9.5’ (8.0’)

Falling Below by Thu. AM

Amite, French Settlement

5.6’ (4.0’)

Falling Below by Fri. AM

Tickfaw, Holden

11.9’ (15.0’)

Falling

Tangipahoa, Robert

15.4’ (15.0’)

Falling Below by Wed. PM

Mississippi, Baton Rouge

36.0’ (35.0’)

Rising to 36.5’ Wed. PM

Mississippi, Red River Landing

53.8’ (48.0’)

Rising to 54.0’ Wed. PM

Atchafalaya. Krotz Springs

23.2’ (29.0’)

Rising to 26.0’ Sun. PM

Atchafalaya, Morgan City

5.9’ (6.0’)

Rising to 7.0’ Sun. PM


THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A broad but shallow trough nestling into place over the Great Lakes Region has sent a cold front toward the Gulf Coast. This front will slow as it hits milder southern air and will elongate in the west to east jet flow aloft matching its surface orientation. As a result, the stalled boundary may be the focal point for scattered pockets of precipitation over the next few days. There will be a few nuances to this forecast that make it tricky. First, the front is NOT moving into a very unstable or moist air mass. Away from an initial pop of showers along the boundary Wednesday, action will struggle to develop, away from the coast, as mid-level moisture is greatly lacking. Likely, additional forcing will be needed for rain and/or thunderstorms to form and this does not appear available until an area of vorticity streams over the front Late Thursday through Friday. Therefore, much of Wednesday and Early Thursday may end up dry, especially north of I-10. After that, with some better upper support, more area-wide scattered precipitation should be able to develop and persist into Saturday Morning. At that time, a surface high pressure advancing from the west should bump a cold front through and begin to clear out the region. Behind this front, northerly winds and cold air advection will bring below average temperatures for the first time in quite a while. On Sunday and Monday Mornings, the low to mid 40s look likely with upper 30s not out of the question for traditional cold spots.    

--Josh

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus

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