May the chill be with us
A cool and dry pattern will last through the weekend before a mild and highly unsettled pattern evolves for Christmas Week.
Today and Tonight: With a cold front through the region, a downward trend in temperatures will begin today. Clouds may be stubborn to break at first, but some sun is expected later. Highs will struggle to reach the low 60s. The really chilly air will slide in tonight as clear skies and light northwesterly winds will be in place. Midnight temperatures will be in the 40's, so keep that in mind if you're making any midnight showings tonight. Expect morning lows in the mid to upper 30s. Looking for the warm temperatures to continue? You've been looking in Alderaan places.
Looking Ahead: Friday will feature cool temperatures and ample sunshine. High temperatures will stay in the upper 50s thanks to light northerly winds. For your weekend—take advantage of a couple dry, sunny days before rain returns next week. Saturday will be sunny with morning lows in the mid 30s and highs near 60. More sun is anticipated Sunday with a low near 40 and highs in the mid 60s.
Forecast Discussion: A 500mb trough will kick through region on Thursday. Until its axis clears the region, clouds trapped at the surface may have a tendency to linger longer than models are anticipating. By afternoon a strong surface high pressure center will build into Texas will reinforcing the clear out and northerly breezes. While Friday Morning will be chilly, Saturday Morning looks like the coolest thanks to lighter winds. At this time, all locations are expected to remain above freezing. Thanks to a trough hugging the East U.S. coast and the aforementioned high, temperatures shouldn’t climb above average until Sunday when the high moves into the Western Atlantic returning southerly flow to the area. Then, the pattern will take a big turn, very unbecoming of storybook Christmas weather. Forecast models are on board with the idea of a deep West U.S. trough and a tall East U.S. ridge. At the surface, a surface storm system is expected to develop. There remains much uncertainty with the exact positions of this storm and associated fronts. What models do agree on is a continued parade of jet maxes crossing the Gulf Coast aloft and several batches of rain developing as a result. With a deep southwesterly flow established—one that typically transports much moisture to the area—Monday through Wednesday will need to be watched for heavy rain and potentially severe weather. 3-5” seems like a reasonable, perhaps conservative estimation over the span. Those traveling for Christmas will want to pay close watch to this timeframe.
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