Less rain, more heat
Yesterday's forecast of 60% rain coverage verified well. A few of the storms, particularly in Iberville and Pointe Coupee Parishes, were stronger than expected. We'll get a mid-week break from widespread action before it picks up again on Thursday and Friday.
Today and Tonight: While not totally gone from the call, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be much more isolated in number and more locations will stay dry than not. Otherwise, it will be partly sunny, hot and humid with high temperatures topping out in the upper 80s. Overnight will be partly cloudy and muggy with a low in the upper 60s.
Looking Ahead: To wrap up the week, fast moving upper-level disturbances will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances. Each day will make it into the mid 80s. Thursday may see a bit more sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain coverage will be on the order of about 40%. Friday though will be mostly cloudy with even more widespread shower and storm activity. By the weekend, those PoPs will back off a bit and with more sun and less water from the skies, it will be hot and humid with highs approaching 90°.
Forecast Discussion: An upper level ridge is sliding across the region today and that will serve to cap off the atmosphere with some warmer air. The result will be fewer showers and thunderstorms. Because a weak front is continuing to decay over the region, there is at least an element of forcing and a weak upper wave could assist in an isolated shower popping with the maximum daytime heating. Thursday through Sunday, the ridge axis will again be east of the area allowing a deeper southwesterly flow. As more disturbances are jettisoned through the pattern, we should be able to activate showers and thunderstorms-especially with daily highs in the mid-upper 80s and dew points near 70°. The wind speeds aloft are fairly weak and lapse rates are not overly impressive. While any storms can briefly turn strong, there is no appreciable threat for severe weather through the weekend.
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