At 51°, Wednesday Morning marked the coolest temperature for Baton Rouge since March 28 when the low bottomed out at 48°. We followed that with the 102^nd afternoon to eclipse 90° in 2015—which is about 10 more times than we might expect in a typical warm season.

Much like the Desert Southwest, we’re learning that dry air cools and warms very efficiently, making suitable wardrobe for morning and afternoon tough to find!

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: On Thursday, another cool morning will be greeted by abundant sunshine which will send thermometers galloping through the 60s and 70s and into the upper 80s. Some locations will even seek out 90, yet again. Overnight, the dry air and clear skies will help temps dip into the upper 50s.

Looking Ahead: For Friday, more sunshine will set the stage for another afternoon near 90°. A weak cold front will approach from the north, but with no moisture available, little more than a passing cloud will be stirred up with this one; and even that could be a tough sell. Under the Friday Night lights, games will kick off in the upper 80s and fall into the 70s through the evening. With a pair of collegiate games in Baton Rouge this weekend look for perfect outdoor weather. Morning temperatures will climb through the 60s and into the 70s by lunch time. With sunny skies, highs will top out around 80 in the afternoon and a northerly breeze will cool temps into the 60s by early evening. On Sunday Morning, the region could feel the first low in the 40s so far this fall! More sunshine and highs in the 70s are expected in the afternoon.  

Get a deeper look into the forecast with computer models and long-term projections in the daily video briefing from Meteorologist Josh Eachus, right HERE.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: The large scale setup shows a broad ridge in the west and a wide trough in the east. At the basin of this trough a large pool of dry air is nestled in the Gulf South. Unsurprisingly, this has resulted in large diurnal temperature ranges due to the efficient thermal properties of dry air. Late Friday, a weak surface front will be squeezed southward by a shortwave in the jet stream scooting across the northern tier of the nation. The front has no moisture to work with from surface to sky and won’t produce any rain—perhaps not even a cloud—rather just a reinforcement of cool, dry air. Over the weekend, high and low temperatures will dip a few degrees below average as a result and Sunday Morning could in fact be the first time Baton Rouge finds a low in the 40s since Late March. Into next week, forecast models are differing on whether or not there exists a potential for some beneficial rain. While a southeasterly return flow of moisture should be established at the surface, and southwesterly wind aloft will provide deep-layer moisture, an overall lack of forcing mechanisms could feasibly, limit precipitation and the GFS model is now latching onto this drier scenario. We’ll watch and update for you as we get closer.  

 --Josh

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