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Increasing clouds with showers on the way

1 year 4 months 2 weeks ago January 06, 2016 Jan 6, 2016 Wednesday, January 06 2016 January 06, 2016 5:38 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A couple of shots at rain are up on the forecast board through the weekend.

 

THE FORECAST:

 

Today and Tonight: Clouds will have a tendency to increase through today although sunshine is still expected, especially early. High temperatures make it into the lower 60s. Showers will begin to develop from west to east after midnight into Thursday Morning with low temperatures around 50°.

 

Up Next: Expect off and on pockets of rain on Thursday—especially early. Generally, an inch is expected area-wide. Clouds and rain should hold thermometers into the low to mid 60s. Friday will start off milder with lows in the 50s followed by a partly sunny afternoon and a temperature top out near 70! The next round of showers is anticipated Saturday with cooler, drier conditions for Sunday.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A shortwave trough will zip through the sub-tropical jet stream from the Four Corners Region to the Great Lakes Region today through Friday. The forecast beneath is pretty straight-forward with good model agreements that a batch of rain breaks out Early Thursday Morning into the afternoon across Louisiana and Mississippi. Positive vorticity advection from the wave and a moistening column all support this. Rainfall should not exceed 1” even with a few brief downpours. One aspect of the forecast to note—models are running the area considerably warmer than our projected numbers. We’re keeping mid 60s due to daylong clouds and rain, the GFS and ECMWF models are throwing out upper 60s.Without a frontal passage and in between upper waves, Friday will be unseasonably mild—into the lower 70s with considerable sunshine. The next shortwave will come into region on Saturday with more showers. This time, a stronger surface storm system will be in tow with a cold front and after the first half of the weekend goes by wet, cooler and drier conditions are expected for Sunday. Overall, next week’s temperatures are looking below the seasonal averages of 62° and 41°.

 --Josh

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