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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Hottest Halloween?

11 months 2 weeks 6 days ago Monday, October 31 2016 Oct 31, 2016 October 31, 2016 3:32 PM October 31, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

THE FORECAST:

After the record-breaking heat yesterday, it's very possible that we could break the Halloween heat record today.

Today and Tonight: Your Monday will bring morning fog followed by an unseasonably warm afternoon. Skies will be sunny with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Overnight will be clear with more fog and lows near 60.

Up Next: The weather pattern won’t change much until Thursday. Until then, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low 60s under mainly clear skies. Then, a weak front is expected to approach the area. It could squeeze out a shower or two with temperatures expected to drop modestly and remain slightly above average. We remain in moderate drought with little to no rain expected this week. Could we see a stronger front next week? Some models say so, but it is too early to make any definitive call.

The Tropics: The tropics are quiet and no development is expected this week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A persistent weather pattern will remain in place over the Central Gulf Coast through the first part of the week as a ridge of high pressure remains over the region. This means skies will stay generally clear and it will remain quite warm for Late October with afternoon highs averaging 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Halloween high temperatures will be close to a record at several locations across Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. Being in this persistent pattern, fog development will remain a possibility the next couple of mornings as there is plenty of low level moisture, clear skies and light winds. By the middle of the week, the ridge of high pressure will nudge east away from the area, which will allow for winds primarily from a southerly direction. This will draw moisture northward as a front approaches from the north, allowing for increased clouds over the forecast area. These clouds, if they form early enough, may limit fog development Wednesday morning. A weakening cold front and associated trough over the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi River Valleys Thursday morning will drop southward into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi River Valleys by Late Thursday. There will be plenty of clouds and a few showers or thunderstorms may also occur on Thursday as the front approaches. The front will sweep through by midday Friday. Unfortunately, it looks like a mainly dry frontal passage, which won`t help alleviate worsening drought conditions across Louisiana and Mississippi. Behind the front, broad surface high pressure will move over the Central U.S. This will return temperatures to more typical highs and lows for early November. The next significant storm system is not anticipated until the middle of next week but that is too far out for in depth consideration.

--Josh

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