After a hot afternoon, some late day showers and thunderstorms cooled down parts of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area. Our forecast called for 10 percent of that forecast area to receive precipitation. Measurable rain coverage overachieved just a little bit, with 20 percent of the area picking up a shower or thunderstorm. Parts of East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge and Iberville Parishes picked up close to an inch of rain, which was very beneficial in what has been a rather dry pattern.

THE FORECAST:

The Tropics: A large area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms positioned in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will influence the weather pattern across much of the southeastern United States through the week. Given a 30 percent chance of tropical development over the next 5 days, a broad area of low pressure is expected to meander in the Eastern Gulf. Regardless of development, this system will be capable of bringing heavy rain across portions of Florida, Georgia and Alabama. On the quieter, western side of the system, the Baton Rouge area is unlikely to notice any significant impact. The chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorms may only increase somewhat compared to last week. The system will pause along the central Gulf Coast during the middle of the week before ejecting northward this weekend.

Today and Tonight: Tuesday will bring more sunshine and another fast climb by thermometers. The 80s are expected by mid-morning with a high temperature of 95 degrees coming in the early afternoon. You will feel the humidity too with a “feels-like” temperature pushing 100 degrees. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible, but development should be less robust than Monday. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s.

Up Next: A surface high pressure system responsible for mainly dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday will begin to break down and make way for a tropical disturbance in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While the local area will stay on the quieter, western side of the system, it will fling enough moisture toward Louisiana and Mississippi for a slight increase in afternoon rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Still, daily measurable rain coverage is not expected to be much more than 30 percent in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area. By the weekend, an upper level trough will help to pull the tropical system northeastward and away from the region. Do not look for much variation in temperatures as highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s.

THE EXPLANATION:

As noted by the National Weather Service, the local area is in between two large areas of rising air—one associated with the tropical disturbance in the Eastern Gulf and another storm system in the Midwest. The rising air has to sink somewhere and that is occurring over Louisiana and Mississippi. As this air falls to the surface, it warms and inhibits cloud and precipitation development.

For those reasons, Tuesday should end up with the warmest temperatures and the fewest showers of the week. However, as the tropical disturbance moves a little but closer to the coast on Wednesday, rain chances will increase with isolated to scattered coverage expected in the afternoon hours. Since widespread rain is not expected, there will be plenty of energy available for the storm that can get going and therefore a strong downburst or two is possible. As the tropical disturbance lifts northward and away from the region this weekend, a very summer-like pattern will unfold with highs near 90, lows near 70 and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Daily rain coverage within the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area will be about 20 percent.

--Dr. Josh

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