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Hitting reset locally, watching a wave in the tropics

5 months 3 weeks 1 day ago July 28, 2016 Jul 28, 2016 Thursday, July 28 2016 July 28, 2016 5:48 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Wednesday’s forecast verified nicely with approximately 80 percent of the viewing area picking up rain—primarily during the first half of the day as expected. Now for today, the pattern gets back to normal. Fewer locations will see a pop-up shower or thunderstorm which will be limited to the midday hours.

Today and Tonight: A partly sunny morning will allow high temperatures to make it back into the low 90s. By afternoon, isolated shower and thunderstorm action will flare up but overall, far fewer locations will see rain compared to earlier this week. Overnight will be quiet, partly cloudy and muggy with a low in the mid 70s.      

Up Next:  Friday through Sunday will be as copy and paste as it gets—even by summer weather standards. Expect skies to be partly sunny with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Forecast area rain coverage will be in the 30-40 percent range meaning some locations will stay dry each day. Heat and humidity will continue with highs in the low 90s. Overnights will be still with lows in the mid 70s.     

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring a disturbance near the Western African Coast. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will move into an area somewhat favorable for further organization over the next several days. A 40 percent chance of development is given. It is worth noting that the system would likely encounter harsher conditions if it reaches the Central Atlantic—so far away from the U.S. that there is no cause for concern at this time.   

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The stubborn and erratic upper level trough that has created unsettled weather since late last weekend has lifted north of the region and opened. Now a weakness between two ridges remains and while rain coverage will back off compared to the last few days, isolated convection fueled by daytime warmth is still expected to fire over the next several afternoons. Measurable rain seems reasonable for about 30 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area Thursday to Sunday. No washouts are expected. Temperatures will be close to normal. By Monday, there are signs that the trough will lift northeast allowing a ridge to nudge in from the west. Both models are now coming on board with this idea. Should that be the case, rain chances would slip a little lower—into the 20 percent range—and temperatures could end up a degree or two above average. Overall, there won’t be any major changes and no surprises for Late July and Early August.  

 

--Josh

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