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High temp map draped in its fall best

10 months 4 weeks 1 day ago Thursday, September 22 2016 Sep 22, 2016 September 22, 2016 5:45 AM September 22, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

“Welcome to fall,” said the Louisiana meteorologist, as he wiped sweat from his brow.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Call it a different season, but the weather forecast remains exactly the same. Expect a mostly sunny afternoon with high temperatures in the low 90s. Overnight, low temperatures won’t drop out of the low 70s as some humidity returns to the area as well.    

Up Next: Friday and Saturday will once again bring a “sticky” heat. High temperatures will climb to the low 90s beneath partly sunny skies. If any showers can get going, they would most likely be in coastal areas. By Sunday, the chance of some afternoon convection flaring up inland gets a little bit better, although rain coverage will remain at 30 percent or lower. A cold front may come into the region next week bringing rain and storms. Uncertainty is high right now. If the front clears the area, this would occur around mid-week and be followed by drier conditions, cooler temperatures and lower humidity. If the front stalls to our west, an unsettled, slightly cooler and muggy pattern will persist. 

The Tropics: Tropical Depression Karl has made the northwestern turn into the Central Atlantic Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 35mph and a minimum central pressure of 1003mb. Karl will eventually turn due north and then northeast over the weekend potentially clipping Bermuda with tropical storm conditions. Tropical Storm Lisa is on a path destined for difficulty into the Northeastern Atlantic. With maximum sustained winds of 45mph little additional strengthening is expected as the storm stays out to sea, weakening to a depression over the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will generally weaken over the next few days. The remaining dry air mass should be enough to hold off showers until Friday though. Furthermore, less the sea breeze, there won’t be a trigger for development until at least Sunday. Moisture return will begin today due to southeasterly winds with dew points slowly creeping back into the low 70s. With that being said, nights of flirting with the upper 60s are over for the near term and afternoon highs won’t warm as efficiently, stopping around 90 degrees rather than the mid 90s. The low level moisture increase will begin to reintroduce afternoon clouds and by Sunday, there may be enough instability aloft for a few showers and thunderstorms to pop. Prior to that, any convection should hug coastal areas. Then, the fun starts. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been flip-flopping over a deep upper level trough moving across the northern tier of the country. An associated surface cold front will stretch from the Canadian border southward to Texas. Ahead of this feature, ripples of energy in a southwesterly flow aloft should be enough to kick out more showers and thunderstorms early next week. As the upper trough begins to close off to our north, positioning will be crucial. If the upper low stalls northwest of the region, the front will be very slow to arrive, if at all, and the area will stay in an unsettled and thus slightly cooler pattern. If the low makes it to the Great Lakes Region or farther east, the front should kick through in a progressive manner bringing lower temperatures and reduced humidity. These details should unfold by the weekend as forecast models get a better grip on the situation. Timing is difficult this far out, but a frontal passage in the Wednesday timeframe seems reasonable. One other note, keep in mind that it isn’t uncommon for areas of low pressure to spin up on the tail end of fronts stalled in the Gulf of Mexico this time of year. Forecast models are also hinting at that possibility.       

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.

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