High pressure brings briefly drier, warmer conditions
Tuesday will have a little less shower and thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, pretty typical July weather remains in the forecast.
Today and Tonight: It is likely that the driest and warmest day of the week is underway. Partly sunny skies will allow temperatures to race into the low 90s. A more stable atmosphere will mean fewer showers and thunderstorms are around to cool down temperatures in the afternoon. About 20 percent of the area will receive rain. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies.
Up Next: Drier conditions will not last long, as higher instability returns Wednesday. This will increase the number of showers and storms moving onshore across the Gulf States. Scattered, mainly afternoon, activity will continue each day for the remainder of the week. Very little change is expected into the weekend.
The Tropics: Tropical Storm Chris has begun its move to the northeast and will become a hurricane on Tuesday. As of 4am, Chris was still about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras and winds were topping out at 70mph. High surf will continue along the Eastern Seaboard as the storm accelerates toward Newfoundland by the end of the week as a strong post-tropical cyclone. The remnants of Beryl are producing unorganized showers and thunderstorms near Hispaniola. This area of low pressure will move into the Bahamas by the end of the week. At that time conditions will be conducive for reformation and the National Hurricane Center has assigned this area a 50 percent of development.
A 500mb ridge to the northwest will expand southeastward over the region on Tuesday. This will put the area in a slightly less conducive region for convection and low rain coverage is anticipated for the second day of the week. Do not expect a drastic drop in activity, rather the normal 20 – 30 percent coverage for the time of year. Into the middle of the week to this weekend, the ridge to the north will gradually migrate towards the Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, easterly flow across the Caribbean Sea will send weak inverted troughs through the Gulf. This will keep the southern part of the ridge from expanding too far south and thus minimize local subsidence. Ample daytime heating with moisture in place will result in typical diurnally driven convection. A general weakness in the upper levels will leave at least isolated convection around for the weekend and this may need to be upgraded to scattered as we get closer.
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