A strong fall storm system will bring heavy rain and severe thunderstorms to the Gulf South Tuesday into Wednesday before a sharp cool down.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: There are a few days each year where we ask that you pay extra attention to the forecast, and this would be one of those times. Ahead of an approaching cold front, an unseasonably warm and humid air mass will run temperatures up into the low 80s. Due to this, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop throughout the day. Any of these could produce downpours and even a tornado. Then, a squall line associated with the cold front will move into the area during the evening hours, bringing a widespread damaging wind and heavy rain threat. Because this will be a nocturnal storm threat, we remind you to please have access to severe weather alerts while sleeping. The line of showers and thunderstorms will begin to exit the region on Wednesday Morning as temperatures fall from the 70s to the 50s.

Impact: Damaging wind, heavy rain (3-4”), an isolated tornado

Bulletins: A *FLASH FLOOD WATCH* takes effect Tuesday Afternoon until Wednesday Morning. This means that low lying spots and areas of poor drainage may notice rapid rises in water due to high rainfall rates. Any flash flooding creates a dangerous situation. Move away from rising or rushing waters.

Timing: Tuesday Afternoon to Wednesday Morning; highest chances for severe storms on Tuesday Evening

Actions: Be alert to rapid changes in weather, have access to bulletins through the WBRZ WX app., the WBRZ Cable Weather Channel, WBRZ Weather on Facebook and @2StormView on Twitter. With both the weather app. and Twitter, you can change your cellular phone settings to allow push notifcations and alerts for updates from the WBRZ Weather team. Secure loose outdoor holiday decorations so that they won’t be blown around. DO NOT drive any vehicle through flooded roadways. You risk stalling out and damaging your engine, or worse, being swept away.

Remember: a watch means conditions are favorable for a specific hazard to develop in the future so you should have a readiness plan, a warning means a specific hazard is happening now and you need to take safety precautions immediately. The area is in a “slight” risk for severe weather—this means there is a higher chance than usual for strong thunderstorms.

For a detailed video briefing on the storm threat, check out Meteorologist Josh Eachus on Facebook by CLICKING HERE.

Looking Ahead: Rain will end from west to east by the lunch hour on Wednesday. Temperatures will be steady or falling through the 60s during the afternoon hours. Clouds are expected to break as well, allowing some sunshine to return late in the day. Much cooler air will settle in for Thursday and Friday. Skies will be mostly clear with highs near 70 and lows in the upper 40s.      

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: Due to a deep trough digging into the Lower Midwest, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is developing over Western Texas. Ahead of the deep low pressure at the surface and associated cold front, an unseasonably warm and moist environment is enriching the surface from Eastern Texas to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. As the atmosphere cools aloft, and the lower level jet stream increases, more numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. High dew points, favorable shear profiles and moderate instability will support rotating thunderstorms during the afternoon hours and an isolated tornado will be possible. This threat will transition into a more widespread damaging wind and heavy rain situation on Tuesday Evening as the surface cold front nears the area with a squall line. Certainly, within these lines, it is not uncommon for a tornado to spin up either. By Wednesday Morning, the squall line and cold front will be moving east of the region. The supporting upper trough will race towards the Great Lakes and thus a rapid west to east clearing is expected behind this front. Cooler and drier air will filter in for a quieter end to the work week. Temperatures will return to more seasonable readings.

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