The forecast has been tricky over the last two days. While rain coverage was less then expected, the threat for severe weather was certainly validated. The storm that did fire up was a strong one in Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana Parish into Wilkinson County. Golf ball sized hail was observed near the falls of Clark Creek Natural Area. CLICK HERE for video of that hail.

A *FLASH FLOOD WATCH* is in effect from Thursday Evening to Friday Evening for the entire WBRZ Weather Forecast area except St. Mary Parish.

The Details:

Today & Tonight: On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will once again be isolated to scattered. Areas along and north of I-12 remain at risk for a few severe storms as the ingredients in place mean that any activity that does spark could quickly strengthen. Downpours, gusty wind and frequent lightning are the main threats. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. As always, stay safe by reviewing severe weather plans and stay in touch with the forecast. Like Wednesday, it will still feel muggy outside with high temperatures near 80. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms should increase with heavy rain possible. Lows will be in the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: A cold front settling into Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi on Friday will offer the trigger needed to get more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Downpours will be possible with any storms that develop. 2-4” of rain is expected by Friday Night. With lows falling through the 50s, clearing is expected into Saturday Morning, beginning an “almost perfect” weekend. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs near 70. Dry weather will remain into the middle of next week.  

The Science:

Discussion: A positively tilted trough remains in place over the Western United States while a surface low is moving towards the Great Lakes Region. A cold front stretches from the surface low into Central Texas. The atmosphere is sufficiently moist with moderate instability in place. However, the upper disturbances previously shown on forecast models are not as evident this morning. With that said, a front still well to the west and the atmosphere thoroughly worked over by morning storms, activity may be limited today. The northern two thirds of the WBRZ Weather forecast area remains under a “slight risk” for severe storms as like Wednesday, any storms that do develop have the ingredients in place for heavy rain, gusty wind and frequent lightning. But again, we’re leaning toward isolated to scattered activity today. As the cold front drops southeastward on Friday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to pick up in coverage. Forecast models show high precipitable water values while the presence of a front will alas provide forcing. Once the front sags into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday Night, precipitation will end from northwest to southeast. With a surface high pressure building in from the northwest, northeasterly winds will transport cooler and drier air into the region with generally clear skies expected through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving through the upper levels will cross the region on Sunday, but with little moisture, no more than some high cloud cover is expected.          

--Josh 

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