Highs will stay way up as rain chances stay low through the week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Heat will continue to be the lead story with high temperatures surging back into the mid 90s. Dew points will be in the mid 70s, producing resulting in high humidity. For that reason, the National Weather Service has issued a *HEAT ADVISORY* until 7pm. This means that highs will exceed 95 degrees and “feels-like” temperatures will be over 108 degrees for more than two hours. Like Independence Day, skies will be partly sunny with only isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. At night, not much relief is expected as lows stay in the upper 70s.

Up Next: Heat and humidity will remain elevated this week—even above the typically high levels of each expected in July. Highs will run 2-3 degrees above the normal high of 93 degrees with lows 3-5 degrees above the normal low of 74 degrees. Wednesday through Friday should bring mostly sunny afternoons with very low, but not impossible, rain chances. If you don’t enjoy this pattern, unfortunately, little change is foreseen this coming weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While the jet stream remains north of the local area, only a few weak impulses will be available to enhance the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Forecast models hint at some positive vorticity advection Tuesday, Wednesday and then again this weekend. While during the summer season this may be enough to kick out a bit of convection, a limiting factor may be moisture. Certainly plentiful at the surface, relative humidity charts show dry air in the mid and upper levels meaning that development won’t come easily. All in all, there will likely be just enough low level moisture, with the aid of some forcing at those specified times that a subtle marine breeze or outflow boundary could generate some spotty activity during peak heating hours. Either way, measurable rain shouldn’t exceed 20-30% of the 13 Parish 3 County forecast area on any given day. With very high heat and humidity, even by July standards, heat indices will be the main concern through the forecast period.   

 --Josh

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