Shade and hydration will be important over the next few days. Humidity may finally be shaved back a bit by a front this weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Plenty of sunshine will guide high temperatures into the mid 90s. When factoring dew points in the mid 70s, humidity brings the word “blistering” to mind. The heat and humidity combination will cause the body to sense temperatures in the low 100s during the afternoon hours. Little relief will come at night as low temperatures can’t drop below those dew points in the mid 70s.

Up Next: A repeat of the heat is expected on Friday. Some changes are then in sight for the weekend. A cold front will (strangely) approach from the northeast. With it, showers and thunderstorms are expected and due to all of the heat and humidity, enough energy will be available for a few stronger storms. By Sunday, the front will push south and some lower humidity will be noticed across the area. While a few showers may linger Sunday and Monday, some sun and a generally less active pattern is expected.    

The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure may gradually come together near the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 5 days. The National Hurricane Center gives the region a 10% of development as warmer waters and favorable upper level conditions come into play. However, at this time, steering winds would continue pushing this system northwest from there and away from Louisiana.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A very broad ridge will overtake the Southern United States for the reminder of the week. The Gulf Coast will notice peripheral effects from this ridge with slightly drier upper atmosphere and a weak cap. This will lid the atmosphere somewhat causing diurnal showers and thunderstorms to back off. Therefore, much of Thursday and Friday should be dry, except for possibly coastal areas. With additional sunshine, solar radiation will be maximized and with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, afternoon heat indices or “feels like” temperatures will feel like the low 100s. A heat advisory may be needed. Into Saturday, a deep trough pushing southward into the Southeastern United States will steer a backdoor cold front toward the local area. While details aren’t as clear as we would like, forecast models have some evidence to suggest that an area of showers and thunderstorms will approach from the northeast. Enough energy will be in place at the surface that positive vorticity advection associated with the tough and frontal lift would support strong storms. This is a somewhat strange scenario as backdoor cold fronts are less common—especially in the warm season. On the other side of the front, there will be a noticeable drop in humidity. An upper trough will meander along the Gulf Coast into early next week meaning isolated showers may continue but rain coverage should stay in the 20-30% range.

--Josh

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