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Haystack Dry

1 year 1 month 1 week ago October 20, 2015 Oct 20, 2015 Tuesday, October 20 2015 October 20, 2015 5:49 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Seasonable fall weather continues as temperatures bump slightly above average through the remainder of the week. There is an increased chance for rain over the weekend which could provide some drought relief to the region.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies will allow high temperatures back to a seasonable 82 this afternoon. High resolution forecast models place a few afternoon spritzes near the coast—but nowhere beyond that will find precipitation. The overnight hours will bring mostly clear skies with a low in the low 60s.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday through Friday will bring the return of a little humidity. With the added moisture, overnight lows won’t dip as much nor will afternoon highs warm so drastically. Expect partly sunny afternoons with highs in the mid 80s while nights are quiet with lows in the mid 60s. Into the weekend, a storm system approaching from the west will bring a good opportunity for rain. At this time, the timing is still being sorted out, but we’re leaning towards a drier Saturday and a wetter Sunday. Of course, stick with us as we update the details later this week.


NEW VIDEO --> With a busy outdoor weekend ahead, Meteorologist Josh Eachus digs into the forecast models for a more detailed breakdown of rain timing and amounts, RIGHT HERE.


 

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: An upper trough is positioned in the Desert Southwest while a surface high pressure is parked just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The chief influence through Thursday will be that high pressure system. Anti-cyclonic flow will allow a gradual wind shift from east to southeast through Thursday. As air sourced off of the Gulf slowly returns, so too will some low level moisture, raising dew points, and keeping lows a bit above average. The trough will flatten somewhat, but with a negative tilt, while shimmying eastward. Leeward of the Rockies, additional cyclogenesis will spawn a surface cold front which will drape north to south through the Midwest by Thursday. These elements will coincide to place the Gulf Coast beneath in a favorable region for rain by the weekend. The jet stream will bring an active, moistening southwesterly flow aloft with some diffluence. Moisture convergence will be occurring along and ahead of the front at the surface. These are all factors that suggest a promising rain setup for the Gulf Coast. Some issues still need to be resolved including precise timing and amounts. At this time we expect rain chances to increase Late Saturday and remain into Early Monday. A general 1” seems possible with locally higher amounts. The fine details will be trimmed up as we get closer.    

 --Josh

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