Clouds will build on Friday in advance of a storm system that will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms over the weekend.

Local rivers are falling below flood stage.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect clouds to increase throughout the day as the next storm system organizes to our west, in Central Texas. Highs will make it back into the upper 70s. As many neighborhoods have bumped trick-or-treating to this evening, while it may be cloudy, rain is not expected. Overnight will be muggy with a low in the upper 60s. A stray shower is possible.

Up Next: Halloween weekend weather will be nothing if not eerie. On Saturday, despite cloud cover, highs will reach for the mid 70s. Rain and thunderstorms will overspread the region from west to east through the morning and into the afternoon. Outdoor activities should have a contingency—especially in the event of lightning. The Storm Prediction Center is watching South Louisiana for the potential of severe thunderstorms on Saturday Afternoon. Problems could include heavy rain and a brief tornado. This of course means Southern University and Alcorn State could have some difficulty kicking off a football game at 4pm. It wouldn’t be surprising if there is a delay. Rain will continue overnight, although the severe threat will diminish. Lows will stay in the upper 60s. By Sunday Afternoon, rain will begin to wrap up from west to east, but the area will be left with event totals of 2-3”. Rivers will need to be monitored again. Partial sunshine returns for Monday and Tuesday with highs near 80 and lows in the low 60s.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A vigorous shortwave trough digging through the southern stream of the jet has developed a surface low in Central Texas. An associated warm front will lift northward into the Gulf South through Friday returning moisture and cloud cover to the area. Action is expected to pick up on Saturday as the trough and surface low near Louisiana. Within the warm sector of this system, rain and thunderstorms will move from west to east along the Gulf Coast through the day. The Storm Prediction Center highlights South Louisiana for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. This seems appropriate given the ample moisture and wind shear that will be in place. The limiting factor for this event will be instability, with daylong cloud cover in place. Regardless, it is not uncommon along the Gulf Coast for low instability, high shear scenarios to spin up brief tornadoes and that will be the main threat. The greatest risk in the local area appears to be for areas northwest of an Iberville Parish – Pike County line where the highest wind shear and strongest jet stream will be in place. Saturday Night and into Sunday, the surface low will lift northeast though Arkansas and into Kentucky. The trailing cold front will stretch from the low’s center into Southwest Louisiana and be in no hurry to clear the region. Thus, steady and potentially heavy rain may continue into Sunday Morning. Storm total rain tallies could be on the order of 2-4” with isolated higher amounts from heavier storms. The GFS model ends rain on Sunday Morning will the European is slower with the frontal passage and holds showers into the afternoon. Regardless, sun likely won’t return until Monday and Tuesday as a ridge builds over the region, pushing highs and lows slightly above average.  

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 --Josh

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