Posted: Mar 14, 2014 10:26 AM by Meteorologist Josh Eachus
Updated: Mar 14, 2014 10:26 AM
A strong system will impact the area Saturday into Sunday.
Timing of incoming rainfall is the major question on which the forecast has been focused this week. The 2014 "Wearin of the Green" St. Patrick's Day Parade rolls at 10am Saturday and is hoping for cooperative weather.
Expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies by dawn Saturday. It will be a touch muggy with temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. By 10am, skies will remain mainly cloudy with only a slim chance for a sprinkle or light shower. Into the afternoon, thermometers will rise to near 70° and rain chances will ramp up, especially by the evening hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are pegged for Saturday Night.
A strengthening low pressure system and associated cold front will exit Texas, carving through the local area over the weekend. Forecast models are showing little, if any precipitation on Saturday Morning. Well ahead of the parent storm system, if any renegade showers do flare up, little more than a sprinkle or light shower can be expected. It is important to note that forecast model evaluation looks for trends and consistency to boost confidence in the forecast. Over the last few days, all forecast models have been consistently trending toward a later onset of precipitation on Saturday.
By the evening hours, the cold front will near Southeastern Louisiana and is projected to carry a good deal of rain along with it. With a strong jet stream, instability aloft and uplift created by the front, some strong to severe thunderstorms will be a possibility. The most likely threats from stronger storms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and possibly some hail. While the severe threat will dampen into Sunday, areas of rain are expected to continue as this complex, slow-moving storm crosses the region. A few models are even carrying lingering rain into Monday. All told, 1-3" of rain will fall for many locations across the region.
A nice dry-out and spring-like weather pattern is in the forecast for next week.