On Monday, high resolution forecast models accurately predicted that the afternoon hours would be quiet—contrary to forecasts from global models and even that of our weather team. For Tuesday, high resolution models, global models and our forecasts all expect scattered action in the afternoon hours. Today won’t be far from typical, where some see sun and others pick up a shower or storm. A more unsettled pattern will take shape Wednesday into the weekend.

Today and Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the mid to late afternoon hours after most locations achieve a high temperature in the low 90s. Humidity will stay elevated and it won’t feel a whole lot better even after the showers. Overnight, we’ll keep the mention of a stray shower or thunderstorm. Lows will be in the mid 70s.  

Up Next: Wednesday through Friday looks even more unsettled. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, possibly in a few rounds, especially on Thursday. An inch or two of rain is possible each day where the most persistent downpours occur. Cloud cover will be more abundant than sunshine limiting high temperatures to the mid and upper 80s but humidity will stay well into uncomfortable territory with nighttime lows staying in the mid 70s. Little change is anticipated this weekend.

• Timing: Showers and thunderstorms won’t necessarily follow the standard pattern of flaring up in the afternoon. Daytime heating will certainly help but as waves of energy move overhead, some nighttime action is possible as well.
• Threats: Downpours will be the main concern with pockets of heavier showers and storms creating localized street flooding. Overall, 3-6" of rain may fall by early next week. Also, as is normal with summer storms, frequent lightning will be a danger as well.
• From the National Weather Service: The areas of greater concern at this time appear to be the Mississippi Gulf Coast counties...the New Orleans Metro area and the rivers that drain into Lake Pontchartrain. To a lesser extent...the heavy rain threat may spread farther west later in the week to include the Amite/Comite Basin and the streams in East-Central Louisiana.
• What should I do? Monitor forecasts from the WBRZ Weather Team. We provide the latest alerts in the Baton Rouge area on Facebook and Twitter. If you live in a flood prone area, it would be a good idea to take the normal precautions now, just in case. Finally, always remember not to drive on a flooded road. Not only can a few inches of water float a car when moving, but even standing water can get into an engine causing thousands of dollars in damage.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough of low pressure will be in position in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico this week. That feature will have the greatest impact on the local weather pattern. As waves of energy spin around the upper low, shower and thunderstorm development can be expected—therefore rounds of action are likely with even greater chances with the support of daytime heating. Through Wednesday, activity should be in the scattered category. By Thursday, forecast models are suggesting that the upper low will move westward along the Gulf Coast and directly over Southeast Louisiana. In doing so, an even more unsettled pattern will take shape. This upper low will then gradually open up as a trough but still have a significant impact on the area in keeping the pattern active. Forecast model rain totals through Monday range from 3” on the low end to 6” on the high end. With a very humid, saturated summer atmosphere, it is expected that storms will be efficient rain-makers and thus localized downpours could create some areal or flash flood issues. That National Weather Service is considering a flash flood watch for later in the week. At this time, the is no significant change to the wet weather pattern expected through early next week.   

--Josh

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