Frosty temperatures, weekend showers and a look ahead
A cold moving through the region today will send temperatures close to freezing again tonight. Yet another front is expected Friday morning.
Today and Tonight: Tuesday will be a little cooler than yesterday. While sunshine will remain, a shift in winds to the northwest behind a cold front will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s and possibly low 60s. Most locations will approach freezing overnight beneath clear skies. Some frost is possible.
Up Next: Another cold front will pass through the southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi on Friday. This one could possibly bring a shower to some locations south of I-10 but chances remain low. After another quick chill down behind that front, some more significant thermal moderation is anticipated for the upcoming weekend. Highs will push 70 degrees by Sunday although rain chances are increasing for Sunday. Looking well into the future and toward the Christmas holiday, early forecast model runs are suggesting that temperatures will be close to average—for many that could be considered an improvement over record warmth from the previous years.
The Explanation: An amplifying shortwave trough will dive south across the southeastern United State on Tuesday. A strong cold front will accompany this wave, clearing the area during the morning hours. The frontal passage will knock temperatures back down by about 10 degrees. Tuesday night could be the one shot for temperatures to approach freezing this week. There won`t be any rain with this boundary as there will not be any chance for moisture to return before it moves through. Tranquil weather will continue through Thursday as upper level moisture and vorticity will be limited. Temperatures will rebound slightly Thursday before yet another cold front moves through by Friday morning. A slightly better chance of rain will be possible with this front as low and mid level moisture moves across Mexico to the northern Gulf coast. However, moisture should only be deep enough south of I-10 and therefore showers for only be mentioned in the forecast for those locations. The deep trough will bring one more day of colder temperatures for the 24-hour period from Friday to Saturday morning. Beyond this system, the broad trough will move east into the Atlantic Ocean and allow a period of moderating temperatures. Moisture will begin to rise as surface high pressure shifts east and southerly flow develops. A fast moving upper level system will bring the next chance of rain on Sunday and into Monday. As of now, only the GFS is aggressive with rain chances so with respect to the ECMWF will keep forecast rain coverage around 20 percent.
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