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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Foggy and muggy to stormy and chilly

1 year 3 months 3 weeks ago February 01, 2016 Feb 1, 2016 Monday, February 01 2016 February 01, 2016 6:15 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Two more mild afternoons can be expected before gusty thunderstorms return below average temperatures to the region.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Dense morning fog will slowly dissipate to another mostly cloudy and mild afternoon. A stray shower isn’t impossible but most locations will remain dry today. Temperatures will reach the middle 70s again as southerly winds of 5-10mph continue. Overnight will bring patchy fog, a low in the mid 60s and perhaps a spotty shower.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday may begin mainly dry across the area and temperatures are expected to make it into the mid to upper 70s by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the second half of the day though. Some of the storms could be strong or severe with gusty wind. The continuation of unsettled weather will be short-lived as rain is expected to wrap up by midnight. Much cooler air will then be ushered in with Wednesday Morning temperatures in the low 50s and not expected to rise much in the subsequent afternoon despite sun.    


Meteorologist Josh Eachus evaluate the severe storms potential and discusses a sharp temperature drop in this full, video weather briefing:


THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A broad and vigorous trough in the Western United States is translating eastward with a low pressure system and attendant cold front currently positioned in Northern Texas. This front will be racing northward towards the great Lakes through Wednesday. Ahead of this system, southerly winds continue to transport unseasonably warm temperatures and dew point in the 60 degree range northward into the Central Gulf Coast. These factors will contribute to some instability by Tuesday; however the most pronounced lapse rates will remain well north of the local area. Upper level winds are southwesterly, creating a veering profile from ground to sky. An advancing surface trough will trigger showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday Afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. Due to some of the aforementioned ingredients, while scattered thunderstorms are likely, isolated severe storms are possible and this is reflected in the Storm Prediction Center’s “slight risk” for areas along and north of I-12. At this time, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado are the primary threats. The cold front will push through by Wednesday returning below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.  

--Josh

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