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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Fog to partial sun

1 year 4 months 2 weeks ago November 04, 2015 Nov 4, 2015 Wednesday, November 04 2015 November 04, 2015 6:07 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

After dense fog during the morning hours, some clearing will occur during the afternoon. The next storm system is pegged for Friday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Stubborn clouds continue to plague the region. Afternoon sun stands a better chance than Tuesday, but still, at least partial cloudiness will hang on. High temperatures will top out in around 80. Another night with fog potential lies ahead, as lows stop in the mid 60s.

Looking Ahead: Expect sticky air to stay in place through Saturday—preventing lows from dropping out of the mid-upper 60s. On Thursday, partly sunny afternoon skies and temperatures in the low 80s could give way to a spotty shower in the afternoon. Clouds will increase overnight as the next storm system approaches on Friday. With highs again heading for 80, a cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for the final day of the week. This wet weather could be around for area high school football games. Scattered showers are expected to stretch from Baton Rouge to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. So again, the local area will have a wet first half of the weekend with clouds and showers to impact the Tigers vs. Tide football game. As of now, it looks like clearing and drying will occur on Sunday.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: While Eastern ridging and Western troughing continues, a storm system will slide out of the Mountain West and into the Great Lakes Region on Friday. A trailing cold front will be draped from Michigan to Louisiana. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out on Friday but weak instability and decent dynamics aloft being well away from the area will keep away any severe weather threat. Periods of rain may continue right into Saturday—possibly affecting both high school football and college football in the region. This front will run into humid air and pull away from its parent low losing a lot of potency and forward momentum as a result. The question is how slow? Forecast models have been split right down the middle, on two very different solutions. The GFS advances the front southeastward with a surface high building into the Midwest. This would result in clearing skies, dropping humidity and some cooler temperatures with highs staying in the 60s on Sunday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains stubborn, holing the front over the Gulf Coast and keeping rain, some heavy, right through Sunday Morning. Given the larger, synoptic setup—both outcomes have merit and needless to say, confidence in the forecast is low beyond Saturday. Since the ECMWF run is beginning to nudge towards the GFS—we too, are leaning toward the cooler, drier, sunnier outcome for Sunday.

 --Josh

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