THE FORECAST: 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Skies will stay mostly clear tonight, as temperatures drop into the 40s by 10 PM. Overnight lows will reach near 43° into Monday morning, with calm winds. Clouds will be increasing through your Monday, especially through the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions will stay warm, as temperatures break into the 50s by 9 AM and 60s around lunchtime, with highs peaking at around 67°. Winds will stay out of the south between 5 to 10 mph, which will prime the atmosphere for the incoming showers late Monday into Tuesday morning.

Up Next:  A strong system originating in Alberta, Canada will be driving into the Midwest and approaching the Gulf Coast late Monday into Tuesday morning. A blast of cold air is associated with this cold front, which will allow for freezing temperatures late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Conditions improve through the rest of the week, with rainfall returning over the weekend. 

THE EXPLANATION:

A strong frontal system will approach from the northwest on Monday, helping to increase cloud cover through the late afternoon and evening hours. This system has a lot of cold air that is associated with it, which will keep temperatures in the mid-40s Tuesday, and freezing Tuesday night. Showers should begin shortly before midnight on Tuesday, and intensify through the early morning period. Rainfall should transition into a wintery mix into the morning hours on Tuesday, mainly confined to Southern Mississippi, but flurries are likely north of the I-10 corridor. The timing has been tough to pin down, but best chances to observe snowfall will be between 2 AM and 7 AM. It should be a one to three hour event north of the Louisiana-Mississippi border, and only around an hour between the border and I-10. Snow will have a tough time accumulating, due to the warm ground temperatures and the amount of rainfall before it transition into wintery precipitation. At best, Southwest Mississippi could pick up about .25”, but will melt quickly as ground temperatures will stay above freezing until 8 PM on Tuesday. Skies will clear through the day on Tuesday, as high pressure moves in behind the front. This will keep conditions dry through Wednesday and Thursday. A low is set to develop off the coast of Texas late in the week, and will try to push onshore Friday and into Saturday. This will bring a return to showers across the area, which should peak on Saturday. Lingering showers should extend into Sunday, but temperatures will be much warmer and breaking into the low 70s for Sunday’s high.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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