Rain chances will move in and out of the isolated category through Independence Day. A gradual warmup is forecast from now to the end of next week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Alas, Friday brings an afternoon where rain chances are too low to mention. A mostly sunny sky will allow high temperatures into the mid 90s. Humidity may be just a notch lower than earlier this week. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 70s underneath a mainly clear sky.

Up Next: You can expect similar weather for Saturday. On Sunday and Monday, there are enough hints that it would be wise to put a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the forecast. However, if anything can develop, it will be isolated and brief, meaning Independence Day Weekend activities should go on as planned. Both days, high temperatures will be in the mid 90s with partly sunny skies. Higher heat is in store for the middle and end of next week—perhaps tagged by uncomfortably warm mornings with lows barely slipping out of the 80s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A weak front has all but dissipated and drifted north of the local area, causing surface forcing to weaken. Additionally, another upper level ridge is pushing across the Gulf Coast. The result of these factors will be low-end to zero rain chances through Saturday. The relatively drier air mass will mean warmer high temperatures—back into the mid 90s—and if you are sensitive to subtle changes, slightly lower humidity. Forecast models continue to indicate a slight weakness in between upper ridges for Sunday and Monday and thus are squeezing out a bit of precipitation on Sunday and Monday Afternoons. Translating this to an actual forecast, it appears that in aligning with a trough axis to the north, the area may have a slightly increased chance of a pop-up afternoon shower or thunderstorm those two days, but the 13 Parish and 3 County forecast area likely won’t see greater than 20% rain coverage either day and the isolated and brief nature of any activity should not cause concern for any outdoor Independence Day plans. Beyond July 4^th, a slightly larger ridge will move overhead and heat will again become the story for the middle and end of next week. High temperatures will move into the mid and upper 90s with little relief at night, lows will remain in the upper 70s.   

--Josh

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