At least a trace of rain has fallen in the Baton Rouge area every day since May 28. Tuesday will mark a tenth straight with precipitation, adding to 4.81 inches that has fallen over the long, unsettled stretch. Alas, one more day of showers and thunderstorms is ahead before a cold front brings some welcome, drier changes to the area.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will continue. High temperatures will struggle for the mid 80s as clouds and precipitation hold out most of the sun’s warmth. Rain will not be constant, rather off and on, and should tend to increase in coverage through the day. A cold front will come into the area tonight with one last pop of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be near 70 degrees.

Up Next: On Wednesday, skies will begin to clear from north to south. Dew points, and therefore humidity, will drop through the day. More sunshine though will allow temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. For the remainder of the week, expect mostly clear skies, lows in the low 60s and highs in the upper 80s. The next chance for a shower or thunderstorms is expected to hold off until Sunday. By then, humidity and highs in the 90s will be in the picture as well.  

The Tropics: The season has started off fairly quiet. A weak disturbance in the Gulf is upsetting the atmosphere and could increase local rain chances Tuesday, but no tropical development is anticipated.

THE SCIENCE: A shortwave across the Lower Midwest will move northeast through the region while a weak cold front moves through the area between now and Wednesday morning. This will induce a long awaited dry spell. In the meantime, an unsettled upper level pattern, saturated atmosphere and continued lift will produce showers and thunderstorms until the frontal passage. Severe weather is still not expected, but some minor localized flooding may still occur due to downpours occurring over already saturated grounds. Behind the front, a persistent northwest upper level flow will take hold through the week. Clear skies and lower humidity will result. Quiet weather will continue until southerly winds begin to pump moisture back into the area by late Sunday—hence a return of rain chances. At this point, typical isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected though models are hinting at an west moving disturbance beneath a mid-level ridge which would possible enhance rain coverage on Sunday and Monday. As far as temperatures go, drier air will mean cooler overnight lows with a few locations possibly dipping into the low 60s Thursday and Friday mornings. Drier air also warms more efficiently and thus high temperatures will warm farther, possibly reaching 90 by the weekend.

--Josh