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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Days from a dry out

6 months 3 weeks 2 days ago Thursday, February 21 2019 Feb 21, 2019 February 21, 2019 5:51 AM February 21, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

More rain is in the forecast. Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Showers will again be scattered around the area on Thursday, but not as heavy as Wednesday. This is all because the same front continues wobbling from north to south and vice versa across our area. While the day will not washout, it would be a good idea to keep the umbrella nearby for occasional rain. High temperatures will stretch for 70 degrees. There may be a lull in activity overnight with low temperatures in the upper 60s. Patchy fog is likely.   

Up Next: Friday will be spring-like with warmth and humidity as well as afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will take a run at 80 degrees. Then, another strong system will swing through on Saturday bringing another shot at rain and thunderstorms.

Timing is difficult at this point, but a squall line should whip through the area ahead of a cold front. This is an important detail to outdoor events because squall lines tend to be progressive, lasting for a few hours rather than the whole day. Monitor the forecast as timing will become clearer by Friday. Once that cold front passes east, we will get a brief break from rain and have some sunshine on Sunday.

THE EXPLANATION:

The same front that came through as a cold front on Wednesday will pull back north across our area as a warm front on Thursday. This system will stall north of the area Thursday night, leaving a warm and muggy air mass in its wake. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through Saturday. There will be breaks in precipitation, especially late Thursday and early Friday, before a shortwave trough swings through the Midwest and sends another cold front through the region on Saturday. Although the best ingredients for severe weather will again be displaced to our north, enough instability and shear will be present to generate some thunderstorms. A few could be strong, especially north of I-12 and that is reflected in the 2 out 5, “slight risk” issued by the Storm Prediction Center. A dryer pattern will finally take hold on Sunday as high pressure builds across the region and allows temperatures to steady close to average. Onshore is expected to return moisture and showers to the region by Tuesday ahead of the next cold front that will cross the area on Wednesday.

--Dr. Josh

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