CSU: hurricane season to have slightly below average activity
In an annual extended Atlantic Basin hurricane season forecast, tropical experts at Colorado State University are projecting slightly below normal activity for the 2017 season. The forecast is calling for 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
The research team cites a weak to moderate El Nino and cooling north Atlantic Ocean waters as reasons for the expectation. Furthermore, a below average probability for a landfall in the United States and the Caribbean is given. Of course, with a forecast based on current conditions and historic data, experts remind coastal residents to prepare as usual, because “it only takes one.”
Some other probabilities given are as follows:
At least one major (category 3-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:
-Entire U.S. coastline -42% (average for last century is 52%)
-U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida -24% (average for last century is 31%)
-Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville -24% (average for last century is 30%)
The forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 29 years of past data. These seasonal forecasts were developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who was lead author on these predictions for over 20 years and continued as a co-author until his death last year.
You can review the entire prediction, the scientific explanation and the reason such a forecast is made, RIGHT HERE. As always, be with the WBRZ Weather Team on-air, online and on Facebook and Twitter as we all get prepared for the 2017 season.