Cold front to bring showers, storms, changes tonight
A warm front has passed through the area so conditions are a bit warmer and more humid than the weekend, but it will not last. A cold front will come through overnight into Tuesday.
Today and Tonight: Monday will be warm and a bit sticky with southeast winds of 5-10mph. Afternoon temps will be near 80 degrees. Skies will be partly sunny early with clouds increasing through the day. As a cold front arrives overnight, showers and thunderstorms will push through the region. While these storms could have some gusty wind or small hail, severe weather is not expected. A healthy one to two inch soak is probable for most of the area. Thermometers should stop in the upper 50s.
Up Next: Beyond the cold front, Tuesday afternoon will bring sunshine back to the area and expect it to stay around for each afternoon to close out the week. Temperatures will be a bit cooler too. Highs will just make it into the low 60s, and it is very possible low could dip into the upper 30s for a night or two this week. That being said, freezing temperatures are not expected, so sensitive plants will be ok.
The Mississippi River will continue a slow rise over the next few weeks. For the local area, from Red River Landing to Baton Rouge to Donaldsonville, the crest will occur around Mid-March. Given the current forecast, impact outside of the levees is expected to be minimal with the exception of soppy land around the Angola farms and by the LSU veterinary complex. The city of Baton Rouge is protected by levees up to at least 43 feet. On the river, traffic and industrial operations will be restricted.
Returning warmth and moisture is expected through Monday thanks to onshore flow as a warm front has lifted through the area. While the moisture is technically sufficient to reason that an isolated shower could develop, forcing will be low and therefore most locations will stay dry. A cold front will move into the area overnight into Tuesday with a solid line of showers and thunderstorms expected along the boundary. While one or two storms could produce gusty wind or hail, there are some significant limitations to severe weather including a strong cap in the atmosphere. There will be plenty of moisture available though so a good one to two inch soak is possible for the entire area. These amounts would not be an issue for local rivers. The cold front will clear out by Tuesday afternoon and so should skies accordingly. Below average temperatures are expected behind the cold front for the rest of the week. After a daytime high in the low 60s and good radiational cooling conditions Wednesday night, low temperatures could dip into the upper 30s into Thursday—especially north of I-12. The next storm system will develop across the Lower Midwest on Friday and will be worth watching as it crosses the local region early next weekend. Forecast models have been persistent in suggesting ample instability profiles and therefore much stronger and more widespread look possible at this point. This is still farther out in the forecast, so stay in touch for updates and more details.
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