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Cold front to bring showers, cooler temperatures

1 year 3 weeks 4 days ago November 11, 2015 Nov 11, 2015 Wednesday, November 11 2015 November 11, 2015 5:42 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

After a warmer Veterans Day, cooler temperatures will arrive and persist through the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Morning clouds and fog will break for some afternoon sun. As is typical ahead of a cold front, temperatures and moisture will bounce up and we can expect a high near 80 with a touch of humidity. Clouds may have a tendency to increase late, ahead of the front. Overnight, we’ll have mostly cloudy skies and a low in the low 60s while a narrow line of showers crosses the area. Rain is not expected to be heavy and aside from an isolated wind gust, little if any impact is expected.  

Looking Ahead: Showers will shut off by mid-morning Thursday. However, clouds may linger well into the afternoon as cooler air begins pushing into the region. Highs will fail to leave the upper 60s. Overnight, lingering clouds may prevent the bottom from falling out on temperatures but it will still be chilly with a low in the upper 40s. Friday through Sunday will be mostly sunny and cool with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.  

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A severe weather threat in the Upper Mississippi River Valley will be the nationwide weather focus today. The same storm system has a trailing cold front that will push through the local area overnight. A quick moving line of light to moderate showers is anticipated and it isn’t out of the question that there is a stiff wind gust or two. A surface high pressure will help to push this front across the Gulf South rather quickly and rain will shut off no later than noon on Thursday. Saturated air trapped beneath a building upper ridge may keep clouds around through Thursday. By Friday though, drying at all levels should promote mainly clear skies right on through Sunday. Highs and lows will run about 5° below average thanks to persistent, light northeasterly winds. Expect highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s. The GFS and ECMWF have both fired off a couple of warning flares that we should monitor next week. The forecast models show a vigorous shortwave slicing through the southern third of the United States. Ahead of it, at the surface, a deep low pressure system and attendant cold develop. In the upper levels, a strong jet stream will provide the dynamics needed to support thunderstorms. Surface instability and moisture profiles look moderate to high for the fall season. These are all ingredients supportive of severe weather. While this is almost a full week away, there are many signs with good model agreement, that this will be a storm system worth watching. Stay tuned!


 

Get a full analysis of the severe weather potential in the daily video weather briefing from Meteorologist Josh Eachus on Facebook.

 


 

 --Josh

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