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Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today

11 months 4 weeks 1 day ago March 24, 2016 Mar 24, 2016 Thursday, March 24 2016 March 24, 2016 6:18 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather Center

A quick moving storm system will end what has been a four day dry stretch for the Baton Rouge area.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A cold front will return showers and thunderstorms to the region today. It looks as though the action will come in the form of a broken line, and therefore, an all-day washout is not expected. Most of the rain will occur between 8am – 4pm. One or two storms could bring gusty wind, especially north of I-12, but widespread severe weather is not in the cards. High temperatures will make it to the mid 70s before rain arrives. Clearing skies will be noted overnight as winds turn northerly at 5-10mph. Lows will end up in the upper 40s.

Up Next: Good Friday will offer abundant sunshine and high temperatures just a tick below average, around 70 degrees. The weekend will begin on a dry and seasonable note with Saturday’s high temperature making it into the mid 70s. Clouds will likely increase through the day. The first half of the weekend appears better suited for any egg hunts as Easter Sunday is shaping up to be unsettled. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day with thermometers in the mid 70s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  As an upper trough moves northeastward through the Ohio Valley, a surface cold front will advance southeastward through Louisiana and into the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast models have come into good agreement on the timing of this event. Showers and thunderstorms should roll through the area in a broken line during the first half of the day on Thursday. The parameters for severe weather have crept into “marginal/slight risk” territory with 1,500 - 2,000 j/kg of CAPE and helicity of 200 m/s. There will be a window of opportunity for a few strong storms mid-morning into mid-afternoon. Chances will be maximized immediately along the front which will serve as the main forcing mechanism. Therefore, the line itself could present a storm or two with gusty winds and/or small hail, but any kind of organized severe weather will be much farther north, closer to the surface low. Also, little more than 0.25” of rain seems possible. Dry air filters in fairly quickly behind the front and some sun could return by dusk. The trough and front will be progressive initially, darting east by Friday as another surface high moves into the Midwest returning slightly below average temperatures. That same front will then slide northward as a warm front, making it back inland Saturday Night. A shortwave trough in the upper levels and concurrent surface low will ride across the front on Sunday creating an unsettled holiday. At this time, rounds a rain and thunderstorms are expected to bring 1-2” of precipitation to the area throughout Easter Sunday. We will need to monitor the end of next week as models are showing a very deep trough digging into the Western U.S. This could result in any number of active weather scenarios for the local area, so stay tuned! 

 

--Josh

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