After a short time of above average temperatures, another cold front will come into the area Thursday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday’s highs will be in the mid 70s under partly sunny skies. If anything, clouds may have a tendency to increase through the day. Winds will remain southerly at 10mph. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with a shower possible closer to dawn. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

Up Next: A cold front is pegged to cross on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms back in the forecast. While widespread severe weather isn’t expected, one or two storms producing gusty wind can’t be ruled out. The day doesn’t look like a washout, rather a line of showers and thunderstorms crossing at once. Current timing brings most of the activity through around midday with returning sunshine even possible late. The area will clear and cool once again for Friday with sun and highs back into the upper 60s. We’re also tracking another storm system which is looking to bring rain to the region on Easter Sunday.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Return flow has become established and thus milder temperatures have been noted. A shortwave working through the Midwestern U.S. has developed a surface low pressure system over the Great Plains and an associated cold front stretching southward into Texas. That storm system will approach the Gulf Coast on Thursday. At this time, forecast models are in pretty good agreement on an afternoon passage. Therefore, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will around midday and an all-day washout is not anticipated. In fact, dry air filters in fairly quickly behind the front and some sun could return by late afternoon. While we won’t entirely rule out one or two strong storms, most of the ingredients for severe weather figure to stay north of the local area with instability perhaps further limited by the morning frontal passage. Model quantitative precipitation forecasts are not impressive and the most likely mode at this point seems to be a line of showers and storms ahead of the front with little more than 0.1-0.25” of rain. The trough and front will be progressive, darting east by Friday as another surface high moves into the Midwest returning slightly below average temperatures. Details are becoming a little clearer as to how Easter Weekend will unfold. The GFS has slowed and weakened to the ECMWF and GEM solutions with rain developing along a northward advancing boundary on Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. A modest surface wave of low pressure may ride along this boundary enhancing rain and thunderstorm development. Between the two rain events in the 7-Day forecast, this one looks better organized and will likely leave Easter Sunday rather unsettled.

--Josh

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