Breezy with clouds moving through
By tonight, heaters get a break and air conditioning goes back into service!
Today and Tonight: Temperatures return to well above average readings this afternoon. Even with a mostly cloudy sky, highs in the low 70s are anticipated. Winds will be breezy--southerly at 10-15mph with occassional gusts over 20mph. Overnight, a little less cloud cover could result in some patchy fog development with lows near 60 degrees.
Up Next: The main forecast challenge through the reminder of the week may be morning fog. Otherwise, afternoons are expected to be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Nights will be muggy by January standards with lows in the low 60s. Rain chances will stay very low, likely around 20 percent, with only a stray shower or two each day.
THE SCIENCE: A largely zonal flow in the upper level will keep the area quiet through the weekend. A slight perturbation or shortwave trough passing north of the region may provide just enough forcing to tap into an increasing mid-level moisture field and create extra cloud cover on Tuesday. By Wednesday, deeper southerly flow will have become well established and this will result in a continued warming trend. Thermometers will be running 10-15 degrees above average Wednesday through Sunday. Additionally, fog may develop as a warmer rand more moist air mass moves across cooler land. While an existing low cloud deck may make this more difficult on Wednesday Morning, patchy fog may become an issue especially Thursday and Friday Mornings. As far as rain goes, other than an isolated shower or two due to moisture advection, no organized precipitation is expected in the absence of any significant lifting mechanisms. A storm system will stall in Eastern Texas Saturday and Sunday and while warm temperatures and clouds are expected to continue, forecast model QPF suggests rain will stay west of the area through Sunday. The evolution of the upper trough associated with this system will determine if and when our next decent chance for rain and cooler temperatures arrives—likely not until at least the middle of next week.