A round of rain leads a cold front into the region which will bring much cooler air by week’s end.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clouds and rain are expected for your Wednesday. Pockets of rain will roll across the region from mid-morning into the evening hours. Precipitation amounts remain under one inch. A few thunderstorms will develop also and some could produce gusty wind. Despite the gloomy look, a surge of muggy air from the south will be getting highs into the low 70s. Overnight will be cloudy with lingering showers and a low in the low 50s.

Looking Ahead: A cold front will kick through the region by Thursday Morning. Clouds may be stubborn to break until afternoon as temperatures struggle into the low 60s. Really chilly air will slide in as skies clear out by Friday Morning. Expect the day to begin in the mid to upper 30s and return to nearly 60 with ample sunshine. Ditto for Saturday.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: The latest storm system to affect the region is developing in the lee of a positively tilted trough in the Lower Midwest. At the surface, a surface low has developed in the baroclinic zone off of the Northeast Texas Coast. A cold front stretches from the Great Lakes region south-southwestward into the Western Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a strong jet stream is allowing continued development of the storm system and advancing the surface low northeastward fairly quickly. Therefore, a day of scattered showers with a few thunderstorms is anticipated across the Central Gulf Coast. Fairly limited instability should keep storms shy of severe limits; however the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Southeast Louisiana in a marginal risk for severe storms. The primary threats would be gusty wind and hail. This becomes more likely closer to the coastal areas. As the cold front moves through on Wednesday Night, showers will come to an end, but clouds will be slow to break until the 500mb trough kicks through the region—this may take a while on Thursday leaving clouds and cool temperatures. By Friday, a surface high pressure will build into the region and persist through Sunday with clear skies the result. Despite the trough exiting eastward, a cool pool will “chill out” at the surface as northerly winds are maintained through Sunday. Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 59-65° range with lows in the 35-40° range.

Looking long-term, warmer and unsettled weather is instore for Christmas week, but many details remain sketchy. That’s the general trend and we’ll of course be on it getting into your weekend.

 --Josh

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