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Bad timing by needed rain

2 years 5 months 1 week ago May 09, 2014 May 9, 2014 Friday, May 09 2014 May 09, 2014 7:24 AM in Weather
By: Meteorologist Josh Eachus

While many having been awaiting nature to "bring on the rain," it certainly could have chosen better timing to arrive in Southeastern Louisiana. Although, Mother's Day flowers certainly won't be going thirsty.

From May 2 -8, no rainfall was recorded for the Baton Rouge metro area, or anywhere else across the region. The 7 day stretch tied our second longest of 2014 of being precipitation free. The longest came from January 14 - 22, 9 days without any liquid in the gauges.

Friday, rain returned to the Bayou State in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A complex weather pattern driven by an upper level trough will produce off and on activity through Saturday. Computer forecast models have been very inconsistent in hashing out the finer details of this system, including the precipitation amounts and especially the timing on rounds of rain.

Current information warrants a forecast of ongoing shower activity through Friday with thunderstorms getting into the mix during the afternoon as instability increases a bit. Friday evening should be a calmer period, with just spotty activity expected through the night. Another round of rain should be triggered Mid-Saturday before the wet weather inducing trough slides far enough east to diminish rain coverage by Sunday. Still, Mother's Day will maintain the possibility for an isolated shower or storm, especially for areas south and east of Baton Rouge.

One twist in the forecast comes from the tropical Pacific. Last week, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring the first tropical wave of 2014 off of the Western Mexican coast. Long diminished, the lingering moisture from that disturbance his migrated into the Western Gulf of Mexico and is feeding the mid-levels of the Gulf Coast with moisture. This injection of fluid could lead to increased rainfall totals through Saturday. At this time, 1-2" of rain is probable for most locations, with isolated higher amounts where any imbedded thunderstorms develop.

Outdoor activities over the weekend have a much better chance of going as planned on Sunday.

The month of April tallied 3.53" of liquid precipitation, nearly an inch below historical averages. Since March 1, only 6.75" of rain fell, leading to a 2 month deficit of over 3" and nearly a 5" yearly deficit with 16.02" having fallen so far.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.

And with rain in the forecast, if you would like to receive hourly radar updates through the weekend, please follow @2stormview on Twitter.

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